Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
755 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE MAX RAINFALL LOCATION PAST 12 HOURS. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
EAST OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES SO FAR HAVE BEEN BETWEEN TWO TO THREE INCHES FROM
SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED CLOUD TOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WARMING. RAINFALL RATES
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING SHOULD REMAIN UNDER .60 INCH PER
HOUR. ONLY FLOOD PROBLEM WILL BE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS...AND URBAN AREAS...STORM DRAINS CANT HANDLE THE
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH 100 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WAS SOME
CONCERN WHETHER TO EXPAND EAST OVER INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE ONE TO THREE HOUR TOTALS WERE BETWEEN
2.9 TO 4.0 INCHES. DONT REALLY FEEL STRONG IF AREAS IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN ONE
OR THREE HOURS.

SURFACE WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON...MLCAPES VALUES COULD
EXCEED OVER 1000 J/KG. WITH A COUPLED JET MAXS WITH PLENTY SHEAR
IN PLACE. ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS GUST EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30
MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM NOON THROUGH 600 PM THIS EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

KIND OF A MESS OUT THERE WITH VFR TO LIFR...RAIN FREE AREAS TO
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS SWITCHING DEPENDING WHAT SIDE
OF THE FRONT YOUR ON...AND TO TOP IT OFF IT CHANGES EVERY HOUR.
PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SO TRIED TO HANDLE THE TWO EXPECTED WAVES. THERE
IS THE FIRST COMING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE STORM MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 50KTS...SO IT SHOULD BE THROUGH PRETTY QUICK. THEN...A
LULL...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT IN THAT AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN WI. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE TAF
TRENDS TOWARD VFR AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT.

KMSP...KMSP...BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
GET A DECENT BREAK SHORTLY AND RETURN TO JUST LIGHT -SHRA UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECETD TO BREAK
OUT AGAIN. STORMS MIGHT ACTUALLY FORM RIGHT OVER THE MINNEAPOLIS
METRO AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO WISCONSIN.

/OUTLOOK/
FRIDAY...VFR. WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 10G15KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS ESE AT 15G20KT.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SSW AT 20G25KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANOKA-BLUE
     EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
     LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
     SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-RUSK.

&&

JVM/CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1016 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

WIZ014>016-023>028-251030-
POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
1016 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY...REDEVELOPING MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THIS AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN
LOW-LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN LOCATIONS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. MAKE SURE THE
ALERT FUNCTION ON YOUR RADIO IS ENABLED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MNZ044-045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-251030-
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-
RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-BROWN-
NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-
MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
1016 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ANNANDALE TO
HUTCHINSON TO FAIRFAX TO SPRINGFIELD...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES
METRO. IN ADDITION...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN LOW- LYING...POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN LOCATIONS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. MAKE SURE THE
ALERT FUNCTION ON YOUR RADIO IS ENABLED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-251030-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-LAC QUI PARLE-
SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-
1016 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
PORTION OF MINNESOTA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS IN LOW-LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1107 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE ST MICHAEL        45.22N 93.64W
05/24/2012  M3.48 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N MADELIA             44.14N 94.42W
05/24/2012  M3.01 INCH       BROWN              MN   COCORAHS

            MEASURED 3 MILES NW OF PERTH

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W NEW ROME            44.54N 94.15W
05/24/2012  M3.85 INCH       SIBLEY             MN   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSE MONTROSE          45.04N 93.90W
05/24/2012  M3.83 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SSW MINNEAPOLIS       44.89N 93.31W
05/24/2012  M3.08 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST BETHEL             45.34N 93.20W
05/24/2012  M3.32 INCH       ANOKA              MN   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW CHAMPLIN          45.19N 93.40W
05/24/2012  M3.43 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ARDEN HILLS             45.07N 93.17W
05/24/2012  M3.17 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   COCORAHS

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1109 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E ST FRANCIS          45.38N 93.28W
05/24/2012  M3.37 INCH       ANOKA              MN   COCORAHS

0530 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE ST FRANCIS        45.38N 93.34W
05/24/2012  M3.50 INCH       ANOKA              MN   COCORAHS

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1123 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

MNZ078-WIZ024-241715-
GOODHUE-PIERCE-
1123 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER GOODHUE AND PIERCE COUNTIES THROUGH
1215 PM CDT...

AT 1121 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODHUE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BELLECHESTER.
  BAY CITY.
  ESDAILE.
  ELLSWORTH.
  MARTEL.
  SPRING VALLEY.

LAT...LON 4434 9273 4487 9240 4486 9215 4475 9213
      4454 9229 4454 9232 4452 9231 4445 9237
      4445 9242 4436 9243 4435 9254 4428 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 207DEG 56KT 4440 9255

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1203 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW OGILVIE            45.77N 93.51W
05/24/2012  M3.60 INCH       KANABEC            MN   PUBLIC

            TOTAL PRECIP SINCE YESTERDAY

1203 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE DARFUR             44.09N 94.80W
05/24/2012  M3.27 INCH       WATONWAN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

WIZ024-025-241815-
DUNN-PIERCE-
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER DUNN AND PIERCE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM
CDT...

AT 1221 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF PLUM CITY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH
AT 70 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ELMWOOD.
  MENOMONIE.
  KNAPP.
  BOYCEVILLE.
  RIDGELAND.

LAT...LON 4469 9207 4468 9213 4462 9214 4468 9231
      4486 9222 4486 9214 4502 9214 4521 9204
      4521 9167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 202DEG 61KT 4475 9218

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

MNZ067-075-241800-
NICOLLET-SIBLEY-
1234 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER NICOLLET AND SIBLEY COUNTIES THROUGH
100 PM CDT...

AT 1230 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF NORSELAND. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH
AT 65 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  RUSH RIVER.
  HENDERSON.
  ARLINGTON.
  GREEN ISLE.

LAT...LON 4436 9422 4472 9416 4472 9389 4468 9388
      4468 9378 4463 9380 4459 9389 4455 9389
      4454 9391 4451 9388 4441 9395 4435 9395
      4430 9398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 202DEG 58KT 4444 9403