Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
720 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 PM CDT

CONSIDERING THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
FREEZE HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW THE 32 DEGREES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE MN/SD
BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND HEAD TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THETA_E
ADVECTION ALONG THE WARMFRONT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ON AND OFF TOMORROW. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
OVER THE MONTANA/DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ROUGHLY 45 TO 50KT WINDS AT 925MB ACROSS THE REGION
BY TOMORROW EVENING SO HAVE INCREASED THE SURFACE WINDS
ACCORDINGLY. FORTUNATELY THE STRATUS DECK ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIMIT THE MIXING
POTENTIAL...AND THEREFORE DID NOT FEEL A WIND ADVISORY WAS
NECESSARY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DONT FEEL THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW IN MINNESOTA FOR
2 REASONS. THE FIRST IS THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA. THE SECOND IS THE
THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECLINE SINCE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG
SYNOPTIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...FOR EXAMPLE THE LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS THAT APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
FORTUNATELY THE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AT THIS TIME...SO WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DESPITE THE DEEP MIXING. DRIER
AIR AND STRONG WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL MAKE IT THE HIGHEST THREAT
IN REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TOWARDS THE ARROWHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE
IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT APPROACHING WAVE DEVELOPS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON OUT WEST...AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY
FOR THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT WAVE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREFORE DID NOT STRAY FROM THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

MID CLOUDS (CIGS AOA 5000) HAVE MOVED RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS MOST OF
AREA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE IN WAA AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY FROM W OF ABR
TO NEAR MHE HELPING ALONG AREA OF SCT -SHRA AND ISOL TSTMS IN
EASTERN SODAK.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO BIT MORE STABLE AMS...BUT PRESENT TRENDS SHOW THAT AT LEAST -SHRA
COULD PUSH INTO RWF DURING NEXT FEW HOURS.

BETTER FORCING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS ARRIVES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF AREA.

NE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH NOW IN NW
ONTARIO SLIDSES TO N OF LAKE SUPERIOR.  PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MONDAY EVENING.  SHUD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS AT
AXN/RWF BY 16Z.

KMSP...VFR THRU PERIOD MAY BE BORDERLINE MVFR AFT 00Z TUES AS PCPN
BECOME MORE WDSPRD.  FOR TONIGHT MID CLDS WITH BASES AOA 5000 FT WITH
GOOD VSBYS.  IF SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO WC MN ARE ABLE TO PUSH THIS
FAR EAST OVERNITE...THEY SHUD REMAIN S OF MSP. NE WINDS WILL TURN E
OVERNIGHT AND SE ON MONDAY.  WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-RUSK.

&&

JRB/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-270015-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS LOW.

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. WEST WINDS OF 30 MPH
GUSTING TO 45 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.

ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO NEAR 25
PERCENT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WIZ014>016-023>028-270015-
POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. WEST
WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
740 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             5 NE CANBY              44.77N 96.20W
03/25/2012  E0.25 INCH       YELLOW MEDICINE    MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
841 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

MNZ064-065-073-260230-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-
841 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

AT 838 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF WOOD LAKE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.  ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NORTH OF BELVIEW..THIS
STORM WAS ALSO MOVING EAST AROUND 45 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ECHO.
  VESTA.
  SEAFORTH.
  WABASSO.
  REDWOOD FALLS.
  MORTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4471 9543 4458 9483 4429 9505 4441 9557
      4456 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 292DEG 41KT 4457 9554

BAP