Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING BUT WITH SCT CU
/040-060/ FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
THOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW CIGS AFTER ABOUT 09Z.
HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT COULD CREATE A SIMILAR
SITUATION AS THE LOW CLOUD AREA THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LAST NIGHT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BUT THE RISK OF LIFR TO
VLIFR VSBYS NOT THAT HIGH DUE TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS. CURRENT
THINKING SIMILAR TO PREV TAFS WITH CIGS IN THE 005 RANGE BUT LOWER
AT KRWF AND KAXN. WILL KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 1SM AT THIS TIME. WILL
COUNT ON STRATUS TO MIX OUT AND BECOME GENERALLY SCT MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER 20Z.

KMSP...WILL START VSBYS AT 5SM AFTER 06Z...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ON CIGS FORMING...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE BY. WILL RAISE A BIT
FROM PREV FORECAST AND HOPE FOR AT OR ABOVE 005. SIMILAR
SITUATION AS OTHER SITES FOR CIGS TO RAISE AND MIX OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BUT INCREASING DURING SATURDAY TO SOUTH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT GENERALLY BISECTING THE CWA IN HALF ON AN EAST-WEST
LINE. CU FIELD WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE HAS ALSO PUSHED
INTO SOUTHERN MN. MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST
IA INTO SOUTHEAST MN WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT DIRECTED MAINLY TOWARD WI AT THIS TIME. A WEAK WAVE
INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY MOVING ENE ACROSS NEB MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM OVER SE MN. CURRENTLY A FEW
CELLS OVER SE WI. WILL DECIDE AT THE LAST MINUTE TO INCLUDE A
MENTION IN WEST CENTRAL WI FOR THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...THIS
MAYBE THE ONLY CHANCE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY
MONDAY BEFORE WE GET A TRIGGER FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE RETREATED INTO NORTHERN MN SO MOST OF
OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY A THICKNESS RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATER.. THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER KANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND WITH THE CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF SAME OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS MIGHT BE A COUPLE
DEGREES DOWN IN A FEW SPOTS BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM TODAY. IN
FACT...WE SHOULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS WELL.

THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF OF AN
IMPULSE MOVING NNW OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROF POSITION FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG
FETCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE GEFS IS SHOWING A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF AT LEAST 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN QUESTION WITH NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
BETTER POTENTIAL WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE NOSE OF
THE STRONGER UPPER JET EMERGES.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR/JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
102 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MNZ078-WIZ023>028-171045-
GOODHUE-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
102 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>077-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-171045-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-
STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
102 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THOUGH TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
747 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

WIZ025>028-170145-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-
747 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012

AT 743 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BRACKETT...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF
EAU CLAIRE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BRACKETT.
  AUGUSTA.
  ALTOONA.
  LAKE HALLIE.
  LUDINGTON.
  LAKE WISSOTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4519 9151 4513 9093 4460 9110 4460 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 196DEG 24KT 4473 9142