Areal Flood Advisory 27, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...SWEEPING A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A QUIETER PATTERN IS
FORECAST NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MOVES
INTO THE CENTER OF THE U.S.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE ARE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...ALL AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. IN ADDITION TO THIS BOUNDARY
PROVIDING LIFT...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS
STRONG...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NOT SURPRISINGLY...A LOCAL MAXIMA
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF OVER 1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS SAME AREA. 2000-3000 J/KG OF MU CAPE ALREADY ANALYZED BY SPC
ACROSS THIS AREA PROVIDES FURTHER CONFIDENCE THAT A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE
BOUNDARY AND SUPPORT FOR RAINFALL PRODUCTION WILL SHIFT EAST...AS
JUST A FEW COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE HIGHLIGHTED WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. DRIER AIR AND BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEHIND TONIGHT'S TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR A QUIET WEATHER DAY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO WESTERN MANITOBA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED SOUTH FROM THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW...AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM WEST
TO EAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AGAIN LOOKS DECENT WITH INCREASING
850MB WINDS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CAPE DOESN'T LOOK
FANTASTIC...BUT 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORTS SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY INITIALLY...AND POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS THE LATEST EUROPEAN SUGGESTS AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER...MODEL SPREAD AND THE FACT THAT IT IS SIX DAYS
AWAY TRANSLATES INTO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN
WEDNESDAY...SO MOST AREAS ARE HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FAILING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN INSTABILITY
BAND OVER CENTRAL MN INTO THE SOUTHWEST.  ONE ORGANIZED CELL
DEVELOPED NEAR KMML LAST HOUR APPEARS TO BE IN MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
ZONE.  WILL GIVE THE STORMS A COUPLE HOURS YET...AND WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS YET.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH LIGHTER WINDS.  SOME
DRIER AIR WORKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTAS MAY OR MAY NOT MOVE INTO KAXN
LATE.  WILL HOLD OFF ON FOG HERE FOR NOW...BUT WILL INCLUDE INTO
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI TAF SITES.  WONT GO IFR CEILINGS JUST YET.

CLEARING THEN THROUGH 14Z WITH A FEW CUMULUS POSSIBLE EARLY.  MODELS
SUGGEST BAND OF MID CLOUDS LIFTS NORTH LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY.  WINDS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT...TURNING MORE
SOUTHWEST INTO FRIDAY REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

KMSP...WEAK CONVECTION MOVING BACK INTO THE WEST METRO NOW.  WILL
HOLD ONTO TEMPO THROUGH 04Z WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER.  COULD SEE
LOWER STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP AFTER THAT AS WINDS DIE OFF MORE
OVERNIGHT.  WILL HOLD ONTO THAT POSSIBILITY THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE
PERHAPS A FEW CUMULUS EARLY AND SOME MID CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PER THE LATEST NAM.  SOUTH WIND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI NIGHT...VFR.  WIND S 5 TO 10 KNTS.
SAT...VFR EARLY...BECOMING MVFR WITH TSRA/SHRA.  WIND SOUTH
10 TO 15 KTS.
SUN...SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE AREA...BUT BETTER PROBABILITIES OF TSRA
EAST OF TERMINAL SITE BY 18Z. WIND WEST 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SPD/DE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
251 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
242000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
251 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...BUT MOST SHOULD NOT REACH SEVERE CRITERIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE WEATHER WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND IS ALSO LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

SPD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
842 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             4 WSW WATERTOWN         44.94N 93.92W
08/23/2012  M0.75 INCH       CARVER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEVINNY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
845 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     HAIL             LESTER PRAIRIE          44.88N 94.04W
08/23/2012  M1.00 INCH       MCLEOD             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEVINNY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
900 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

MNZ059>063-066>070-240330-
ANOKA-CARVER-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-MCLEOD-RAMSEY-SCOTT-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-
WRIGHT-
900 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
ANOKA...CARVER...DAKOTA...HENNEPIN...MCLEOD...RAMSEY...SCOTT...SI
BLEY ...WASHINGTON AND WRIGHT COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

AT 853 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE METRO AREA. THESE STORM WERE MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MINNEAPOLIS
  ST PAUL
  BLOOMINGTON
  EDEN PRAIRIE.
  VICTORIA.
  BURNSVILLE
  PLYMOUTH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4528 9287 4456 9287 4456 9402 4522 9400
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 237DEG 19KT 4490 9388

SPD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
906 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORWOOD/YOUNG AMERICA   44.78N 93.92W
08/23/2012                   CARVER             MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

DEVINNY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
918 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     HAIL             DASSEL                  45.08N 94.31W
08/23/2012  M0.75 INCH       MEEKER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEVINNY