Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
13 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A POOL OF 75 PLUS DEGREE DEWPOINTS NOT FAR OFF THE
ALABAMA COASTLINE.

UPPER AIR DATA FROM 12 UTC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE PERSISTENT WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED ABOUT NEAR JACKSON MS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
COMBINE WITH A LARGE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM...
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA INTO ALABAMA. AS
A RESULT...NEW ORLEANS IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING SHOWERS ACROSS THEIR
ENTIRE REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO IN
OUR REGION LATER TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL.
THE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE HIGH 80S TO MID 90S ALL ACROSS
OUR AREA.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF
STORMS JUST NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL ONLY SERVE TO PROVIDE ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISS AND
INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. MODIFIED 12 UTC SOUNDING DATA CONFIRMS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SBCAPES LIKELY IN THE 2500 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS IS WHY
THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO ADDED THIS INTO THE ONGOING FORECASTS. ALSO INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AROUND 60 PERCENT...AND THIS
MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS
SUPPORT MORE STORM ORGANIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES WITH SOME
BRIEF IFR OR MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY MOB AND BFM. CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE HIGHER AT PNS...AS EARLIER
ACTIVITY AROUND MOBILE WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT.
FOR AIRCRAFT FLYING IN OR OUT OF ANY OF THE THREE TERMINALS...EXPECT
SCT-NUM TSRA AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET. ANY STORMS
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
ASIDE FROM ADDING MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST
AND INTO MOBILE BAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LOW
OUTSIDE THE SEA BREEZE ZONE. LOCALIZED INCREASES IN WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...LAMERS
REST OF DISCUSSION...GODSEY/GUBA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
457 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
457 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY STRAIGHT WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-111200-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
457 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST PREVALENT
DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL BRING THE RISK FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGH SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW WATERSPOUTS.

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1017 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     WATER SPOUT      5 W FAIRHOPE            30.54N 87.95W
07/10/2012                   BALDWIN            AL   ASOS

            KBFM AIRPORT WEATHER OBSERVER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OVER MOBILE
            BAY. NUMEROUS REPORTS AND PICTURES OF THE WATERSPOUT RECEIVED
            FROM THE PUBLIC.
&&

LERICOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1025 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     WATER SPOUT      5 W FAIRHOPE            30.54N 87.95W
07/10/2012                   BALDWIN            AL   ASOS

            KBFM AIRPORT WEATHER OBSERVER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OVER MOBILE
            BAY. NUMEROUS REPORTS AND PICTURES OF THE WATERSPOUT RECEIVED
            FROM THE PUBLIC.
&&

LERICOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1037 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

MSZ078-101615-
STONE MS-
1037 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR STONE COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

AT 1031 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LUMBERTON TO BAY ST. LOUIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3091 8934 3092 8914 3091 8912 3068 8900
      3068 8924 3065 8925 3065 8934 3091 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1536Z 245DEG 22KT 3091 8953 3027 8927

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

MSZ067-075-076-101745-
WAYNE MS-PERRY MS-GREENE MS-
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GREENE...PERRY AND
WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

AT 1159 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TALLAHALA TO ROYCE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN MEASURED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3144 8914 3144 8895 3181 8895 3183 8894
      3184 8874 3144 8845 3112 8843 3101 8887
      3135 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 226DEG 33KT 3147 8912 3107 8880

08-LAMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

MSZ067-101830-
WAYNE MS-
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR WAYNE COUNTY IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

AT 1240 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SANDERSVILLE TO 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHICORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...AND THE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

LAT...LON 3182 8895 3183 8894 3184 8877 3186 8863
      3190 8847 3157 8846 3143 8863 3143 8876
      3154 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 212DEG 35KT 3184 8896 3151 8860

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
212 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

ALZ055>057-102015-
BUTLER AL-CONECUH AL-MONROE AL-
212 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BUTLER...CONECUH
AND MONROE COUNTIES IN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

AT 209 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIRNELSON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN MONROE...NORTHERN CONECUH AND SOUTHWESTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FAIRNELSON...DEANS...
MIDWAY...MIXONVILLE...AL 47 AND CR 29 ROAD AND BUTLER SPRINGS...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

ALSO...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3183 8711 3183 8691 3179 8676 3147 8688
      3153 8720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 201DEG 17KT 3159 8706

17-GOULD