Special Marine Warning 129, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A
DAY MAKES AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE HARD TO FIND THIS TIME
YESTERDAY BUT HAVE NOW BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. THIS IS THE RESULT OF DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE WESTWARD TOMORROW RESULTING IN A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND THE SEABREEZE TO
IGNITE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...A TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES AND SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A CONTINUED
UPPER WEAKNESS WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE CLIMO POPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. /13

&&

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  WILL BEGIN WITH VCTS THEN WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FROM
19-23Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO
25 KNOTS.  LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY
18-19Z THEN SWITCH BACK WITH THE LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON THEN SWITCH TO A WEST TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  92  74  91 /  20  60  30  50
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  91 /  30  60  30  50
DESTIN      77  88  78  88 /  30  50  30  50
EVERGREEN   72  93  72  92 /  30  70  20  60
WAYNESBORO  71  92  72  92 /  30  60  20  60
CAMDEN      72  94  72  93 /  30  50  20  60
CRESTVIEW   70  93  72  93 /  30  60  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-181200-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1024 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE MAINLY
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS.

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