Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Mobile, AL

745 
WGUS64 KMOB 220346
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1046 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

.HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A VERY SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL...WITH HIGHER
ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE
OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0001.120322T0600Z-120323T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
1046 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI 
  FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A VERY SLOW MOVING STORM 
  SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF 
  RAIN COULD FALL...WITH HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES 
  WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

902 
WGUS64 KMOB 220907
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

.HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TRAINING OVER THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. 

ALZ051>053-061-063-221700-
/O.EXB.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-UPPER MOBILE-LOWER MOBILE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...MOBILE...PRICHARD...
SARALAND...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE
407 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...LOWER 
  MOBILE...UPPER MOBILE AND WASHINGTON. 

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FROM
  LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A VERY SLOW MOVING STORM
  SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
  LIKELY...WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE
  THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THIS TRAINING
  OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT
  PERIOD OF TIME...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221700-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
407 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. 

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
  MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TONIGHT AS A VERY SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
  APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
  RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER WAYNE...PERRY...AND STONE COUNTIES.
  SIMILAR RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY FURTHER EAST OVER EASTERN
  WAYNE...GREENE...AND GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
  HIGHER TOTALS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE
  THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THIS TRAINING
  OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT
  PERIOD OF TIME...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

106 
WGUS64 KMOB 221646
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY FOR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

.HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A
RELATIVE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

ALZ062-064-230100-
/O.EXB.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...
FOLEY...SPANISH FORT
1146 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...LOWER BALDWIN AND UPPER BALDWIN.

* THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS A SLOW
  MOVING STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. SOME
  LOCATION MAY RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED
  TOTALS UP TO SIX INCHES ON AN ISOLATED BASIS AS THUNDERSTORMS
  REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

  BALDWIN COUNTY HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

&&

$$

ALZ051>053-061-063-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-230100-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-UPPER MOBILE-LOWER MOBILE-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...MOBILE...PRICHARD...
SARALAND...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...
BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...
LUCEDALE
1146 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... 
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER MOBILE AND WASHINGTON. 
  IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND 
  WAYNE. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A
  VERY SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RADAR
  ESTIMATES THAT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY HAS ALREADY FALLEN
  OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS
  ENDING AT MIDDAY. 

  THE NWS IN MOBILE IS BEGINNING TO RECEIVE REPORTS THAT SMALL CREEKS
  AND STREAMS ARE NEAR BANKFULL AND RISING AND THAT CAMPERS ARE BEING
  ASKED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND AS A PRECAUTION.

  AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
  MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
  ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 ADDITIONAL INCHES IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL
  BRING THE EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL TO BETWEEN 9 AND 14 INCHES OVER A
  TWO DAY PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS
  LIKELY TO CAUSE INUNDATION OF WATER IN COMMUNITIES ALONG SMALL
  CREEKS AS THE LARGER RIVERS DISCHARGE INTO THE SMALLER CREEKS AND
  LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MERGES UPSCALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

&&

$$

963 
WGUS64 KMOB 230055
FFAMOB

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

.HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A RELATIVE SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.

ALZ051>053-061>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231000-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...MOBILE...PRICHARD...
SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...
FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...
BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...
LUCEDALE
755 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... 
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER 
  BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE AND WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A
  VERY SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RADAR
  ESTIMATES THAT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY HAS ALREADY FALLEN
  OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.


AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4
TO 7 ADDITIONAL INCHES IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BRING THE EVENT TOTAL
RAINFALL TO BETWEEN 9 AND 14 INCHES OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE
INUNDATION OF WATER IN COMMUNITIES ALONG SMALL CREEKS AS THE LARGER
RIVERS DISCHARGE INTO THE SMALLER CREEKS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
MERGES UPSCALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

&&

$$

438 
WGUS64 KMOB 230924
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

.HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO 
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A RELATIVE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

ALZ054-055-231730-
/O.EXA.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILCOX-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...
MONROEVILLE
424 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL 
  ALABAMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...MONROE AND WILCOX. 

* UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FORM THE WEST. RADAR
  ESTIMATES THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY HAS ALREADY FALLEN
  OVER PORTIONS OF WILCOX AND MONROE COUNTIES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
  INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
  TOTALS POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

&&

$$

ALZ051>053-061>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231730-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120323T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...MOBILE...PRICHARD...
SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...
FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...
BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...
LUCEDALE
424 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... 
  CHOCTAW...CLARKE...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER 
  BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE AND WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST 
  MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE AND WAYNE. 

* UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A
  VERY SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RADAR
  ESTIMATES THAT 5 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY HAS ALREADY FALLEN
  OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AN
  ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
  MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA TODAY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
  TOTALS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BRING THE EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL TO
  BETWEEN 9 AND 13 INCHES OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF
  SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE INUNDATION OF
  WATER IN COMMUNITIES ALONG SMALL CREEKS AS THE LARGER RIVERS
  DISCHARGE INTO THE SMALLER CREEKS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
  MERGES UPSCALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

.UPDATE...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE IS ALLOWING
FREQUENT SFC WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO  35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40
MPH OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. 12/DS

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AN UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT TO INCLUDE RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO
WATCH 97 FOR GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...AND STONE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. A DIFFLUENT
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND AN ASSOCIATED
LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD FROM
EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING LINE OF STORMS GIVEN MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 35
KNOTS. THEREAFTER...THE LINEAR MCS/QLCS WILL BEGIN IMPACTING OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES MAINLY AFTER 5 PM CDT. A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR/0-1 KM
HELICITY VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WET BULB ZERO VALUES
AROUND 9500 FT AGL. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012/

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES...

..HEAVY RAINS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
LOUISIANA NORTH INTO ARKANSAS. THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL VERY
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE NE
INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL FOCUSED ACROSS SE MS AND THE FAR WESTERN
ALABAMA COUNTIES.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO
500-1000 J/KG OVER SE MS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EROSION OF A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER
SE MS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN LINE WILL DO SO IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE (AROUND 30 KT).
HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHEAR PRESENT IS IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER
(25-30 KT) WITH 0-1 KM SRH FORECAST TO BE IN THE 150-200 J/KG
RANGE.  THEREFORE...CANNOT DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER
MAINLY SE MS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE.
ONE POTENTIAL FAVORABLE FACTOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND ENHANCEMENT
OF FORWARD FLANK DOWNDRAFTS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME A CONCERN...AGAIN
MAINLY OVER SE MS TONIGHT AS THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS
INTO THAT REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES
WITH TRAINING OF CONVECTION HIGHLY LIKELY GIVEN THE MID TO UPPER
FLOW. THEREFORE...LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WITH THE CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
DAYTIME MIXING ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR OR HIGHER THAN
30 MPH. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGH TEMPS
WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...WARMEST EAST OF I-65 OVER S CTRL
AL.

A HEADS UP FOR THOSE VISITING THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. SEAS ARE VERY
ROUGH AND ENTERING THE SURF IS DISCOURAGED. AS ALWAYS...HEED THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH PATROLS AND LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS. 34/JFB

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON THE LATEST
WEATHER 21.00Z MODEL RUNS REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. THURSDAY MORNING THE UPPER
LOW CENTER LOOKS TO ONLY BE UP INTO OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...THEN
PROGRESSING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LARGE
STORM SYSTEM...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE MID GULF INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS UP INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. ALIGNED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A MOIST 1000-850 MB
THETA-E RIDGE AXIS POINTING NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF ALONG WITH A
SIGNAL OF STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER LIFT WHICH MIGRATES ONLY SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AS WELL. THESE INGREDIENTS AND THE ENHANCED
LIFT BY THE APPROACHING FRONT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN
EVENT IS IN OUR NEAR FUTURE. LATEST GRIDDED STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE COME IN HIGHER SINCE 24 HOURS AGO. ENDING
AT 7 AM FRIDAY...RAIN GAUGES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 COULD
SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES. EAST OF THIS LINE 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAINS.
BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY DOES SUPPORT STRONG STORMS. THE HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES FROM STRONGER STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE SAME AREAS AREAS COULD VERY WELL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALLS...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO AROUND 6 INCHES IN
SPOTS. AREAS PRONE TO POOR DRAINAGE COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND TIME TO LOOK AT
RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS NEED
FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...HAVE LEANED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASED RAIN COVERAGES.

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...CHANCES OF RAIN
CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GULF COAST BEING INFLUENCED BY
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH CREEPS EASTWARD.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE PHASED WITH STRONGER
WESTERLIES MOVING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND WILL BE
PROGRESSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A MORE
AMPLIFIED BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES ALLOWS
FRONT TO GET A PUSH TO THE EAST SUNDAY. DRIER AIR AND EASTWARD BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE BRINGS AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. /10

AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR/IF STRATUS MAINLY FROM MOBILE AND
POINTS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FURTHER EAST
TODAY BUT WILL MAINLY BE AT MVFR LEVELS. BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER SE MS AND CROSSING THE STATE LINE INTO W AL.
TSTMS MAY AFFECT MOB/BFM LATE EVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BREEZY SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KT. 34/JFB

MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS OF 6-8 FT WITH TIDES RUNNING
AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY...SEAS WILL STILL BE NEAR 7 FT
WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THROUGH THU AFTN FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. THE LATEST WIND FORECAST SUPPORTS ENDING THE
ADVISORY AT 7AM THURSDAY FOR MOBILE BAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES
FURTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO...STALLS
AND WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 34/JFB

FIRE WEATHER...MAIN PROBLEMS FOR CONTROL BURN OPERATIONS TODAY WILL
BE BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW. THURSDAY WET.  /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  66  76  64 /  40  70  80  60
PENSACOLA   77  67  75  66 /  20  30  70  60
DESTIN      77  67  76  66 /  10  20  40  60
EVERGREEN   83  62  77  64 /  20  20  70  60
WAYNESBORO  80  63  69  61 /  60  80  80  70
CAMDEN      84  61  74  62 /  20  30  80  60
CRESTVIEW   83  62  79  63 /  10  20  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
252 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221615-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
252 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS
SURROUNDING SUNSET WEST OF I-65 AND PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AS A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.  AS THE LINE MOVES FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT IT WILL EXHIBIT
SEVERAL PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG IT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL SOON BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND WILL BE VALID UNTIL 7 PM TOMORROW EVENING. A GENERAL
3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI WITH HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE MAINLY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...SO ANY
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED.

WEST OF A LINE FROM CLARKE TO BALDWIN COUNTY IN ALABAMA...A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR WIND GUSTS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35 MPH.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS ALONG AREA BEACHES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OUTLOOK IS FOR MODERATE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH PATROLS AND
LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THESE AREAS...WITH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. TWO
TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EAST OF I-65.  A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ADD TO THE RAINFALL TOTALS
AND MAY CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT FOR FLOODING.

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-221615-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
252 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA DUE
TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALABAMA COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS NEAR 7
FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF WATERS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY
BE STRONG...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.