Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE VERY WET PATTERN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY WHICH ONLY ADDS TO THE
ONGOING FLOODING SITUATION. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ENE ON
MONDAY AND WEAKEN...HOWEVER AN UPPER WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A LINGERING SFC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY IN A DEEPLY TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PW
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. MESOSCALE MODELS AGAIN INDICATE A BREAK
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE MORE REDEVELOPMENT
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL EASILY PRODUCE MORE FLOODING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND STALL NEAR THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER... THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AS RAIN CHANCES CHANCES DECREASE...TEMPS WILL INCREASE BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. /13

&&

.AVIATION (10.18Z AND 11.00Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR CIGS AND VISYS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL IMPACT THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THESE
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AT NIGHT WILL DEVELOP BY MID WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  88  75  89 /  60  60  20  40
PENSACOLA   77  88  77  88 /  60  70  30  50
DESTIN      78  86  76  85 /  60  60  30  50
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  91 /  60  70  40  50
WAYNESBORO  70  91  71  91 /  50  40  30  50
CAMDEN      71  90  72  91 /  60  70  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  89  73  91 /  60  70  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER
     MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...AND STONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111145-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY
TODAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE RECORD RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BRING
A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-111145-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
137 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     RIP CURRENTS     3 S GULF BREEZE         30.32N 87.20W
06/10/2012                   GMZ655             FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** 3 SWIMMERS PULLED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
            AT PENSACOLA BEACH...1 FATALITY.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1037 AM     TSTM WND GST     MONROEVILLE             31.53N 87.32W
06/10/2012  U0 MPH           MONROE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON HOUSE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     LIGHTNING        GULF SHORES             30.27N 87.70W
06/10/2012                   BALDWIN            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** POLICE AND PARAMEDICS RESPONDED TO THE GULF
            STATE PARK PAVILLION ON EAST BEACH BOULEVARD THIS MORNING
            TO TREAT A 10-YEAR OLD BOY STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. HE WAS
            TRANSPORTED TO A LOCAL HOSPITAL IN CRITICAL CONDITION.

&&

JC