Areal Flood Advisory 52, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
304 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
TROUGH IS INDICATED FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
WEAKENING FURTHER. RIDGING IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WITH AN
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PIEDMONT AREA. THIS UPPER
FEATURE ALONG WITH TRANSITING VORTLOBES BRINGING LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH THE DENSITY WEIGHTED MEAN STEERING FLOW ALOFT FROM
AROUND 850 MB SEEMS TO BE PROVIDING SOME OVERHANG STRUCTURE TO THESE
OTHERWISE PULSE TYPE STORMS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY: IR SHOWS NUMEROUS CELLS WITH TOPS <-55C COOLING
THROUGH TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAST HOUR. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MIDLEVEL
HUMIDITY BEING RATHER HIGH AS EVIDENCED BY INSITU AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ISOLATED TOPS OVERSHOOTING THE
TROPOPAUSE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY PUT JUST EAST OF THE FA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GMEX FROM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC REMAINS STEADY STATE WHICH WITH A MINOR TROUGH OVER FLORIDA
PENINSULA MEANS POPS ABOVE SEASONAL AND TEMPS A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.
HAVE APPEARS THE MAV HAS PICKED UP ON THE RAIN SIGNAL FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WEST TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN END GETS PULLED EAST AS
THE UPPER LOW ANCHORING THE NORTHERN END MOVES EAST. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ROCKIES HANGS TOUGH...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
THIS PUTS THE FA UNDER A LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DECREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...KEEPING A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH A SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO FIRE OFF
DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...BASED ON CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  BASED ON THE LAST FEW RUC HRRR RUNS...WILL HAVE
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 23-02Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS.  WILL HAVE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 25 KNOTS WITH THE STORMS IN EACH TEMPO GROUP.  VFR
CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY 03Z WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE IN PLACES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS RECEIVING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
LDSI GENERALLY IN THE 20S THURSDAY AND 30S TO 40S FRIDAY.

/77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  91 /  50  60  20  50
PENSACOLA   76  91  77  92 /  40  60  30  60
DESTIN      78  87  78  89 /  40  60  30  50
EVERGREEN   72  93  72  93 /  40  70  30  50
WAYNESBORO  70  93  71  93 /  40  70  30  60
CAMDEN      72  94  72  93 /  40  70  40  50
CRESTVIEW   70  93  73  94 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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