Areal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
304 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
TROUGH IS INDICATED FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
WEAKENING FURTHER. RIDGING IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WITH AN
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PIEDMONT AREA. THIS UPPER
FEATURE ALONG WITH TRANSITING VORTLOBES BRINGING LIKELY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH THE DENSITY WEIGHTED MEAN STEERING FLOW ALOFT FROM
AROUND 850 MB SEEMS TO BE PROVIDING SOME OVERHANG STRUCTURE TO THESE
OTHERWISE PULSE TYPE STORMS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY: IR SHOWS NUMEROUS CELLS WITH TOPS <-55C COOLING
THROUGH TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAST HOUR. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MIDLEVEL
HUMIDITY BEING RATHER HIGH AS EVIDENCED BY INSITU AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ISOLATED TOPS OVERSHOOTING THE
TROPOPAUSE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STAY PUT JUST EAST OF THE FA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GMEX FROM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC REMAINS STEADY STATE WHICH WITH A MINOR TROUGH OVER FLORIDA
PENINSULA MEANS POPS ABOVE SEASONAL AND TEMPS A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.
HAVE APPEARS THE MAV HAS PICKED UP ON THE RAIN SIGNAL FOR COOLER
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WEST TO OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN END GETS PULLED EAST AS
THE UPPER LOW ANCHORING THE NORTHERN END MOVES EAST. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ROCKIES HANGS TOUGH...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
THIS PUTS THE FA UNDER A LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DECREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...KEEPING A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
WITH A SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO FIRE OFF
DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA.

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...BASED ON CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTLINE AND ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  BASED ON THE LAST FEW RUC HRRR RUNS...WILL HAVE
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS AT 23Z WITH A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 23-02Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS.  WILL HAVE VARIABLE
WINDS AT 25 KNOTS WITH THE STORMS IN EACH TEMPO GROUP.  VFR
CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY 03Z WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WIND IN THE MIXING LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE IN PLACES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS RECEIVING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
LDSI GENERALLY IN THE 20S THURSDAY AND 30S TO 40S FRIDAY.

/77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  91 /  50  60  20  50
PENSACOLA   76  91  77  92 /  40  60  30  60
DESTIN      78  87  78  89 /  40  60  30  50
EVERGREEN   72  93  72  93 /  40  70  30  50
WAYNESBORO  70  93  71  93 /  40  70  30  60
CAMDEN      72  94  72  93 /  40  70  40  50
CRESTVIEW   70  93  73  94 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-191200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-191200-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1155 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RESULTANT LOCALLY ROUGHER
SEAS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
142 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ALZ064-181945-
LOWER BALDWIN AL-
142 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

AT 141 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
GULF SHORES...OR NEAR BON SECOUR...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GULF SHORES...        BON SECOUR...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
150 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ALZ051-181945-
CHOCTAW AL-
150 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
BUTLER...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF NEEDHAM...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TOXEY...              NEEDHAM...            GILBERTOWN...
  BUTLER...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
205 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ALZ063-181930-
LOWER MOBILE AL-
205 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

AT 203 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BAYOU LA BATRE...OR 3 MILES NORTH OF CODEN...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CODEN...         BAYOU LA BATRE...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
229 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ALZ061-063-182030-
UPPER MOBILE AL-LOWER MOBILE AL-
229 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

AT 225 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST MOBILE...
OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF I10 AND I65...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST MOBILE...        MIDTOWN MOBILE...     TILLMANS CORNER...
  THEODORE...           I10 AND I65...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 26. THIS
INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES.

&&