Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.AVIATION...[06Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z AND
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z SUN IN AND AROUND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 1K THROUGH 1.5K FT THROUGH 14Z AND 1K TO
2.5K FT THROUGH 02Z SUN LOWERING TO 1K TO 1.5K FT AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KTS THROUGH 14Z WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON SAT BECOMING
MOSTLY SOUTH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SAT. 32/EE

&&

.BEACH AND MARINE UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH EARLY SAT EVENING. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. OVER THE MARINE AREA E TO
SE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH INCREASING TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED OVER THE WEEKEND. 32/EE

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SFC FRONT THAT IS JUST
OFFSHORE TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
SYSTEM OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE FCST
AREA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINING WITH THE LOLVL BOUNDARY AND THE
VERY MOST MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW'S NEAR 2 INCHES...WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL STILL BE HEAVILY DIURNAL WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST NUMEROUS EACH DAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH PW'S EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
PERIOD FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...MAYBE 5 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL ZONES. SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
HOWEVER. STILL POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATER ON THIS WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO LONG TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN FINALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAINTAINED PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION (08/18Z AND 09/00Z ISSUANCES)...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY NECESSITATE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA COMBINES WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND MOISTURE FOR MODERATE TO HIGH COVERAGES
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR TERM. MAIN THREATS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
FOR AGENCIES CONDUCTING ANY CONTROL BURN ACTIVITIES WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVELS IN STORMS. DAILY DISPERSION THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS GENERALLY GOOD. PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  84  73  86 /  50  80  60  80
PENSACOLA   72  84  75  85 /  50  80  60  80
DESTIN      73  82  74  85 /  50  80  60  70
EVERGREEN   67  83  68  88 /  30  70  60  70
WAYNESBORO  67  83  70  87 /  30  80  60  80
CAMDEN      65  82  68  87 /  20  70  60  80
CRESTVIEW   69  83  70  88 /  40  80  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:      LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:      COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL
SANTA      ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
200 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND
LOW LYING AREAS. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND
LOW LYING AREAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED.

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-091130-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
200 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE DUE TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE.