Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THOUGH OVERALL
PWAT VALUES HAVE DROPPED FROM YESTERDAY AS A POCKET OF DRIER AIR
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE COMPETING WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THIS WILL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN AIDING STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

EXPECT THE BIGGEST INFLUENCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WILL BE
TWO PRE-FRONTAL BANDS APPROACHING THE STATE...ONE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH A SECOND
STRONGER AND MORE INTACT BAND MOVING THROUGH THE BIG BEND AND
EASTERN GULF. WHILE THE FIRST BAND IS FALLING APART AS IT MOVES
FURTHER INLAND THIS MORNING...THE REMNANTS WILL PROVIDE AN
INITIATION BOUNDARY FOR ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING....BUT EXPECT
ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO. WITH THE FLOW
REMAINING A LITTLE MORE BACKED THAN INDICATED BY MODELS...EXPECT
THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS REACHING INTO THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF BREVARD
COUNTY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE RUNS INTO
THE SEA BREEZE.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL ADJUST RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TO SHOW
60-70 PERCENT FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO LAKE KISSIMMEE NORTH AND WEST
AND 50 PERCENT FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
STRONG GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST IN THE LOW 90S WHILE
EARLY CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD TEMPS FURTHER NORTH IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH 15Z
WITH LCL CIGS AROUND FL010 FOR TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z WITH ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER 17Z. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ANY CONVECTION WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS POSSIBLE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS MAY GUST TO 20KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

MARINE...MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT FOR FAST
MOVING OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE MORE BACKED THAN INDICATED
BY MODELS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND SPEEDS CONTINUE AT 15-20KTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL THE WATERS NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET...WITH SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15
KNOTS AS THEY VEER MORE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
GRADUALLY DECLINING FROM 3-5 FEET TODAY TO 2-4 FEET LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

MOSES/KELLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-182300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1155 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...A SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP TO THE
SOUTH BUT REMAIN PINNED ALONG THE COAST. STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROL
ON THE LATEST SURF CONDITIONS AND ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...UP TO 25 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER INLAND
LAKES...AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
THEY PUSH OFFSHORE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
EVENTUALLY FADE INTO LATE WEEK. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK. OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY/WEITLICH

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