Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...ORIGINAL PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING TAKE PLACE.
THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
SOUTH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OVER THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THUS
MAKING FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LOWER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES WILL SERVE AS THE LIMITING FACTOR. NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTY ALSO LOOK TO EXPERIENCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY
CLUSTER OF PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MARION AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES TO THE NORTH IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
BECOME DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OWING TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WEAKENING WIND FIELDS AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL CAUSE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LINGER
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE BOUNDARY FLATTENS OUT AND
PROPAGATES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WILL LEAVE SCATTERED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AREAWIDE AS MID-
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN A MODEST ZONAL FLOW.
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ENOUGH
FORCING LOOKS TO STILL EXIST FOR CONVECTION.

SHOULD START TO SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES...INHIBITING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING MIGRATES SOUTH. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL
BE IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES AND GREATEST AMOUNT OF FORCING WILL RESIDE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WITH A SLOWER AND PERHAPS LESS ROBUST
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
MID TO LATE WEEK FOR THE EXPECTED DEEP EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW THE SURFACE
FRONT MAKING ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL POOL.

THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS BY LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE
FLOW AROUND TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...DO NOT EXPECT
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS ISOLATED-SCATTERED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN PLACE BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT WILL SEE TEMPO MVFR AS SHOWERS
APPROACH AND IMPACT TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. INCLUDED VCTS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KVRB SOUTH AS HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MAY
ALSO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
VEER WITH TIME AND BEGIN SUBSIDING IN SPEED BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. APPROACH OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE WILL KEEP SEAS AT 3-4 FEET NEARSHORE AND
4-5 FEET OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL INCLUDE FIRST PERIOD
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ROBUST EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...PLACING THE LOCAL WATERS
IN A LONG FETCH EASTERLY PATTERN. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH WINDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS...AND SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED AT
3-5FT NEARSHORE/5-7FT OFFSHORE DUE TO THE LONG FETCH AND
CONTINUING LONG PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT. ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  75 /  60  40  40  20
MCO  87  73  91  73 /  60  40  40  20
MLB  89  74  87  76 /  50  40  50  30
VRB  89  73  89  75 /  50  40  50  30
LEE  85  74  88  73 /  60  40  40  20
SFB  87  75  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
ORL  87  74  90  74 /  60  40  40  20
FPR  89  73  88  75 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...GUSEMAN
IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY