Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
806 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

OVERNIGHT...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ISSAC WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. AS THE SQUALLS COME ASHORE THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND POSSIBLY A FUNNEL
CLOUD.

THE WIND GRIDS WERE THE PRIMARY GRIDS ADJUSTED FOR THIS UPDATE.

WHILE A FEW SQUALLS WITHIN THESE BANDS HAVE SHOWN WEAK ROTATION...SO
FAR THE STRONGEST CELLS HAVE REMAINED JUST SOUTH AS WELL. HOWEVER
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR SQUALLS TO DEVELOP STRONGER ROTATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO AS THEY QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THE CURRENT PATTERN OF SQUALLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER DAYBREAK AS ISAAC MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF
AND PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

REFER TO THE TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT FROM NWS MELBOURNE FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING ISAAC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY-TUESDAY... A STRENGTHENING ISAAC WILL BE MOVING FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AND THE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON MONDAY.

THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER THE AREA
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF ISAAC AND WE WILL REMAIN IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
SQUALLS...THE FLOW AROUND ISAAC WILL BRING WINDY SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE REGION MONDAY. NUMEROUS SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE AREA PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES. IF MORE BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD
COVER ON MONDAY...STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME A HIGHER CONCERN IN
THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY
AS ISAAC IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
NEAR ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STILL
REMAIN BREEZY ON TUESDAY AND A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WED-SAT...LONG TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DIVERGING TRACKS...LEADING
TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH ISAAC INTO MID WEEK WITH DIFFERENT
LANDFALL SCENARIOS ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
NHC TRACK OF ISSAC FROM THE 2 PM ADVISORY BRINGS THE SYSTEM
ONSHORE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE REGION KEEPING ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS FL020-030. TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVY SHWRS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT OVER ALL
COASTAL AREAS. STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WATERS...PEAKING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
WILL REMAIN ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AT TIMES DURING PASSAGE OF SQUALLS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH ISSAC MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS MONDAY WITH NUMEROUS SQUALLS FROM
THE OUTER BANDS OF ISAAC STILL IMPACTING THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL START A GRADUAL DECLINE INTO MID WEEK AS ISAAC MAKES LANDFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND CONTINUING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  79  85  78 /  60  70  70  50
MCO  82  77  86  78 /  80  80  80  40
MLB  82  81  85  78 /  90  80  70  50
VRB  83  80  87  79 / 100  90  70  50
LEE  86  76  87  78 /  60  70  80  40
SFB  83  77  87  78 /  60  70  80  40
ORL  81  76  86  79 /  70  70  80  40
FPR  79  79  86  78 / 100  90  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-
     ST. LUCIE.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

UPDATES...WIMMER

PRIOR AFD COMPOSED BY
SHORT TERM...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....KELLY
HYDROLOGY...GLITTO
AVIATION...BOWEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-270000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REFER TO THE TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LOCAL STATEMENT AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE POTENTIAL IMPACT GRAPHICS PRODUCED BY NWS MELBOURNE FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

PENDERGRAST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
555 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FLZ064-262245-
MARTIN-
555 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE HOBE SOUND BEACH...JONATHAN DICKINSON STATE
PARK AND JUPITER ISLAND.

LAT...LON 2721 8036 2720 8019 2719 8018 2720 8017
      2720 8016 2717 8015 2716 8015 2703 8009
      2697 8008 2695 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 114DEG 33KT 2695 7999

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
633 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FLZ059-064-262300-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE-
633 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MARTIN COUNTY...EASTERN ST.
LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 631 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
JENSEN BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE INDIAN RIVER ESTATES...NORTH RIVER
SHORES...PORT SAINT LUCIE RIVER PARK AND SAINT LUCIE WEST.

LAT...LON 2721 8048 2756 8048 2756 8031 2743 8027
      2741 8025 2739 8025 2733 8022 2732 8021
      2729 8020 2728 8019 2727 8019 2724 8017
      2720 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 106DEG 36KT 2724 8018

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FLZ058-064-270330-
MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-
1051 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER WESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT.

AT 1049 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PORT MAYACA...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE OKEE TANTIE STATE PARK AND TAYLOR CREEK.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2711 8067 2716 8072 2720 8080 2715 8087
      2723 8099 2729 8100 2733 8105 2736 8104
      2740 8113 2754 8095 2728 8068 2721 8068
      2721 8060 2696 8034 2695 8036 2695 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 135DEG 43KT 2695 8059

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1105 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 WSW HOBE SOUND        27.05N 80.17W
08/26/2012  M39 MPH          MARTIN             FL   MESONET

            WXFLOW XHOB 08824GUST 35 KTS.

&&

FXD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1155 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

FLZ054-058-059-064-270515-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-
1155 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OCCASIONAL STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER INDIAN RIVER
COUNTY...MARTIN COUNTY...OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 115 AM EDT.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SQUALLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM NEAR INDIANTOWN TO
OKEECHOBEE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 TO 40 MPH. TRAINING OF SQUALLS
OVER THE SAME AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN AMOUNTS OF TWO
INCHES OR GREATER IN A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ASHORE FROM STUART TO
VERO BEACH THROUGH 2 AM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.

LAT...LON 2714 8070 2720 8080 2715 8087 2721 8097
      2729 8100 2733 8105 2736 8104 2738 8110
      2751 8121 2754 8121 2762 8115 2764 8104
      2764 8088 2769 8087 2780 8041 2723 8019
      2724 8021 2697 8009 2696 8062
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 313DEG 41KT 2712 8027 2672 8066