Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
210 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...STORMS AGAIN HAVE FORMED IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WERE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 20 MPH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER MARION AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL IMPACT
ORLANDO...SANFORD AND THE ORLANDO SANFORD AREA AIRPORTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RADAR AND MESONET SHOWING THAT THE SEA BREEZE JUST
FORMING AND WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY WEST AGAINST THE PREVAILING 15 TO
20 MPH SOUTHWEST FLOW.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORMS AND SHOWERS END BY MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES FROM MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE
STORMS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD SUNRISE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE COAST...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTERIOR BECOME LIGHT SOUTH OR
CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND TAKES OVER AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN
YOU WILL SEE DISTANT LIGHTNING FLASHES FROM STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ON THE MAINLAND...NORTH BREVARD...COASTAL
VOLUSIA AND WEST OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON ON THE MAINLAND TO THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST AND BEACHES.

THU-FRI...TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS LIFTING NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
EAST AND INCREASES FORT PIERCE SOUTH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTH BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HIGHS AROUND 90 AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST DUE TO THE WIND SHIFTING
TO THE ONSHORE DIRECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SAT...WESTERN ATLC RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED S OF THE
REGION DUE TO COT'D PRESENCE OF TROUGHING ALONG THE US EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE WRN ATLC RIDGE ACTUALLY REMAINS MOST EVIDENT AT MID
LEVELS GENERALLY FROM BERMUDA SWWD TO THE BAHAMAS AT WEEKS END. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO STEER TC ISAAC ON A GENERAL WWD HEADING LATE
THIS WEEK. LOCAL FORECAST WL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCT DIURNAL POPS
OVER THE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHCS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL BUT
SCT IN COVERAGE AREAWIDE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPS.

SUN-TUE...ATTENTION TOWARD ISAAC DURING THE WEEKEND TRANSLATES TO
HIS POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. NHC FORECAST DAY 5
POSITION CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL CUBA COAST SUNDAY EVE
WITH ANTICIPATED DRAWING NWD OF THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH US EAST COAST TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
REGARD TO STRENGTH OF THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
ISAAC AND THE EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF THE WWD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND
ONSET OF INTERACTION WITH THE US EAST COAST TROUGH. LATEST 00Z ECMWF
RUN INDICATES A STRONGER MORE EXPANSIVE WWD EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE
AND THUS A MORE WWD MOTION OF ISAAC TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF. IT IS
HOPED THE HIGH ALTITUDE G4 SURVEILLANCE FROM THE NOAA JET BEGINNING
THURSDAY WILL SAMPLE THE REGION AROUND ISAAC AND PROVIDE ADT'L INFO
FOR MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER COORD WITH NWS MIAMI WL USE THE GFS MOTION AND GENERAL WIND
FIELD PAST DAY 5 WITH CAPPING OF THE MODEL PREDICTED GRIDDED WIND
SPEEDS OVER LAND AND MARINE AREA AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE.

ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PLAYS OUT EXPECT A DAILY AND EARLIER ONSET
OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH DEEPER PENETRATION INLAND AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER POPS INTO THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION..
TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
18Z AND 24Z. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST 00Z-04Z DUE TO
ISOLATED STORMS. VFR AFTER 04Z. FEW-SCT STRATUS AOB FL010 AROUND
SUNRISE THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...BUOYS 010 AND 012(OFF SAINT AUGUSTINE) RECORDING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 16 KNOTS. THE NOAA AND NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS
RECORDING 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR THROUGH
MIDNIGHT PRODUCING CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED STORMS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF SHORE AND
IN THE GULF STREAM MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING THU

THU-FRI...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU THEN
NORTH FLORIDA FRI. WIND FINALLY SHIFTS FROM PREDOMINATELY OFFSHORE
TO ONSHORE FRI. WIND STARTS INCREASING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FRI
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHEAST U.S./NORTH FLORIDA AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CUBA AND
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SAT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE OF LIGHT
ONSHORE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONDITIONS. BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SUN-MON...MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF ISSAC BUT...ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN LINE WITH GRADUAL APPROACH OF THE STORM TOWARD
THE GENERAL AREA. DEGRADED WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE THE STORY DURING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&