Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND...REMAINING NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
OUTFLOW FROM SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE MORE ACTIVE WEST COAST
BREEZE WILL EVENTUALLY COLLIDE WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR TO JUST WEST OF I-95 TOWARD
SUNSET. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO THE
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING OVER LAND BY MIDNIGHT. LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HOWEVER SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN INTO
TOMORROW...ALLOWING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF THE AREA TO BEGIN BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH BUT WILL
STILL MAINTAIN HIGH MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG LATE DAY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOW 90S BEFORE INCREASING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE
DAY BEGIN TO COOL OFF TEMPS.

MON-FRI...RIDGE LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRIEFLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AGAIN DURING MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES/COLLISIONS...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z. LINGERING CONVECTION
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN BY 04Z WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF TEMPO IFR/MVFR AGAIN TOMORROW AFT IN
SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET
NEARSHORE TO 2-4 FEET OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. A FEW OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK
WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  75  92 /  20  30  20  30
MCO  75  93  76  94 /  20  40  20  30
MLB  74  90  75  91 /  20  40  20  30
VRB  73  90  74  91 /  20  50  20  30
LEE  76  94  75  95 /  20  40  20  30
SFB  76  94  76  95 /  20  40  20  30
ORL  76  93  76  95 /  20  40  20  30
FPR  73  90  73  91 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1111 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-112100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1111 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG SEA AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORM MOTION OF 5 TO 10 MPH
IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER TODAY AND STORM MOTION WILL
REMAIN SLOW...SO A FEW MORE AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE LOCAL
RAIN AMOUNTS TO AROUND 3 INCHES.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE MAINLAND AND CROSS THE COASTLINE.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER
34 KNOTS ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. THEREFORE..SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST SECTIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE SO SPOTTERS SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NECESSARY.

LASCODY/CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
457 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FLZ045-046-053-144-112200-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
457 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...ORANGE
COUNTY...NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM
LAKE LOUISA TO 15 MILES WEST OF POINCIANA PLACE...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE MAGIC KINGDOM...BAY HILL...LAKE BUENA
VISTA...INTERSTATE 4...US 192...CELEBRATION...AND DOCTOR PHILLIPS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2864 8173 2874 8115 2819 8101 2809 8146
      2814 8146 2814 8153 2820 8153 2826 8156
      2826 8166 2834 8167 2835 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 263DEG 9KT 2852 8169 2829 8168
          2811 8171

MOSES