Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
AND ARE NOW DIMINISHING THOSE AREAS WITH LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DRIFTING INLAND OVER THE TREASURE COAST BUT
HOLDING CLOSER TO THE COAST IN BREVARD CO AND FLOW STILL HAS A
WESTERLY COMPONENT NORTH OF THE CAPE. CLOUDINESS MORE EXTENSIVE
ACROSS THE NORTH FROM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING ON THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT MESO MODELS DIMINISH
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT REACHES INLAND WITH AIR MASS ALREADY WORKED OVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND MAIN VORT ENERGY ALOFT SLIDING OFF TO
THE NE. AIR MASS HAS BEEN MORE DRY AND SUPRESSED TO THE SOUTH TODAY
BUT MESO MODELS INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING AS THE OUTFLOW AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACT WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED POP IN ALL AREAS FOR
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY MID 70S.

TUE INTO THE WEEKEND(FROM PREVIOUS)...UPPER TROUGH ALONG US EASTERN
SEABOARD IS ADVERTISED TO MAINTAIN A PRESENCE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK AND WITH THIS THE ATLC SFC RIDGE WL REMAIN DISPLACED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK TO MODEST MID (STEERING) LEVEL WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WL KEEP A MENTION OF
SCT DIURNALLY BASED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST RAINFALL COVERAGE IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE (PWAT). NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FETCH IS CURRENTLY SHOWN DESPITE A SEASONALLY
FAVORABLE REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF
WAVES CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES MAY INCREASE MOISTURE
AROUND NEXT WEEKEND...THE SECOND FEATURE...AN INVEST AREA AT MID
OCEAN (AL99) SHOWS POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ACCORDING TO LATEST GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS...MOST OF WHICH CARRY THE FEATURE TO THE CARIB AROUND
DAY 9-10.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS IN MAINLY SHOWERS NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-4 INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL ISOLD
TO SCT SHRA/TSRA FORMATION EAST COAST COUNTIES SOUTHWARD OF KTIX
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KT NEAR SHORE AND
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 15 KT OFFSHORE...ESP AT NIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT OR
LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. MAIN CONCERN TO
BOATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS EACH DAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE NORTH OF THE CAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  76  91 /  20  30  20  30
MCO  75  94  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
MLB  76  89  76  91 /  20  20  20  20
VRB  76  89  75  90 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  75  93  75  94 /  20  40  20  40
SFB  76  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  30
ORL  75  94  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
FPR  76  89  75  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
IMPACT WX...MOSES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1052 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-310300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1052 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DIPPED INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...AND THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS LEAD TO EARLY
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVES EASTWARDS. IN ADDITION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED WHERE THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLLISION OF THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE
INTERIOR IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
DOWN BURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP TO 2 INCHES.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS OVER INLAND LAKES AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTION
WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK AT THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK WITH
LIFEGUARDS ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE SURF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THIS WEEK. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES.

AN ELEVATED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES
WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SEDLOCK/MOSES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
447 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FLZ045-046-147-302130-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
447 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER NORTHWEST BREVARD COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

AT 444 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS CENTERED
8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BITHLO AND 6 MILES SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL COLLIDE WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS FARTHER
EAST

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE BITHLO...CHRISTMAS...CANAVERAL GROVES...TITUSVILLE...AND
PORT SAINT JOHN.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2866 8108 2866 8101 2861 8099 2861 8097
      2866 8096 2866 8075 2860 8075 2861 8080
      2854 8078 2853 8074 2851 8077 2841 8074
      2834 8074 2834 8095 2839 8113 2849 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 226DEG 11KT 2848 8118 2845 8102

CRISTALDI