Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT BUILT NORTH
AND WEST OF ORLANDO HAS LIMITED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...FARTHER SOUTH SHOWER/STORM FORMATION IS OFF TO
A SLOWER START. THIS IS DESPITE A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH
LATEST XMR SOUNDING SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH
CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
STILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH SUNSET. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH INTERACTIONS
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...WHICH HAS FORMED SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH OR PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THU...DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWARD TOMORROW WITH RIDGE AXIS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DRIER AIR/SAHARAN DUST WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO
THE AREA WITH THIS RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
NORTHWEST OF MELBOURNE...ACROSS LAKE AND TOWARD VOLUSIA COUNTIES
WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. STILL...POPS ARE LOW WITH VALUES AROUND
20-30 PERCENT FOR THIS AREA. HOT TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
DESPITE THIS MINOR TEMP DIFFERENCE...HUMID CONDS WILL CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

FRI-SAT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE
AROUND THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S INLAND WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON.

SUN-TUE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN AND MON RESULTS IN SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FORMATION EACH DAY. MORNING SHOWERS
AT THE COAST TRANSITION TO AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS BACK OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...LATE START TO CONVECTION TODAY BUT SCT SHRA/TSRA STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH 00Z...PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AS
THEY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE COAST. RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO
THURS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW AFT. STILL ...ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM
KISM/KMCO NORTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWER RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH S/SW
WINDS THUR BECOMING S/SE INTO LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  75  93 /  30  30  20  20
MCO  74  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  20
MLB  74  92  76  91 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  75  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  20
SFB  75  95  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
ORL  75  95  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
FPR  73  90  75  91 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-182100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAN PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2
INCHES...CAUSING PONDING OF WATER IN LOW SPOTS AND OTHER POORLY
DRAINED AREAS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
CURRENT OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO
TIDAL EFFECTS. RESCUES WERE REPORTED ON TUESDAY AND PERSONS SHOULD
CHECK WITH LIFEGUARDS ABOUT OCEAN DANGERS BEFORE ENTERING THE SURF.
IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...STAY CALM AND SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE
UNTIL THE SEAWARD PULL EASES...THEN SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY...PUSH ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND REACH INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL DECREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RL/JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
417 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

FLZ058-182100-
OKEECHOBEE-
417 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF DEVELOPING STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL
SIZED HAIL 8 MILES SOUTH OF BASINGER...MOVING NORTHEST AT 20 MPH.
THESE STORMS WILL CROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND HIGHWAY 441 FROM
AROUND OKEECHOBEE CITY NORTHWARD.

LAT...LON 2723 8099 2726 8101 2729 8100 2730 8102
      2733 8105 2736 8104 2738 8107 2738 8111
      2739 8113 2759 8086 2743 8067 2732 8068
      2720 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 248DEG 18KT 2729 8096