Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
820 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WEATHER...SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW IN OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BEING DETECTED BEYOND 20 MILES OF
SHORE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS OVER OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES
WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WIND
IN THE LOWER LAYERS DIMINISH. HIGH OVERCAST WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNRISE. AMENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AROUND WHAT THEY WERE THIS
MORNING...LOW 70S AWAY FROM URBAN AREA AND MID 70S INTERIOR URBAN
AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BEYOND TONIGHT

WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND ERODE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE STRUNG OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH.

WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALSO IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH
THE PENINSULA WILL BE IN DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO THE
1.8-2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND
FINALLY DISPLACING THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE. WITH BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW FOCUSING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST IN THE IN THE EARLY EVENING.

ONE LIMITING FACTOR IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER IF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN INDICATED.

THU-FRI...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK WITH LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW PERSISTING. GFS DOES INDICATE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STILL
REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH GREATER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND
INTO GULF DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH KEEPS RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
AREA. LONG TERM MODELS THEN SHOW RIDGE BUILDING BACK SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST
FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION ALONG THE
INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30-40 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU 06Z. FROM 06Z TO 11Z..TEMPO MVFR...BKN025...
ALONG THE COAST SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FROM 18Z-24Z TEMPO MVFR OVER THE INTERIOR VICINITY OF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 010 RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 2
FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4NM AND 6NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND
NORTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS. MADE
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK KEEPING THE PREVAILING FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE MODERATE WITH WIND
SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS. 2-3FT SEAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SLOWLY
CLIMB TO 4FT FAR OFFSHORE DUE TO THE INCREASING FETCH. DOMINANT WAVE
PERIODS 8-9SEC OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH 4SEC ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS OFF MARTIN COUNTY SHELTERED BY THE BAHAMAS. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

UPDATES......WIMMER
IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1123 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-102000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1123 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL ALLOW
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND FASTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH A SLOWER DRIFT OF THE BOUNDARY INLAND TO THE NORTH.
A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
THEN STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. STORM MOTION WILL BE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE MAIN DANGER WITH ANY STORM TODAY WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING THAT CAN STRIKE YOU EVEN WHEN A STORM IS NOT
OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S AND LINGERING
COOL AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS
WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF COINS...ESPECIALLY FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTH INTO
LAKE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES...INCLUDING METRO ORLANDO.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
SLOW STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH
CELLS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A COUPLE HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES...
INCLUDING OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA.
SUCH HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF SOME ROADS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER URBAN LOCATIONS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF MARINE STORMS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FOCUSED
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY/GLITTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ041-044>046-053-144-102030-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER LAKE COUNTY...ORANGE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...
WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER ORLANDO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2896 8196 2896 8166 2905 8166 2905 8164
      2928 8165 2932 8168 2938 8145 2940 8143
      2940 8142 2927 8141 2927 8134 2924 8132
      2829 8116 2829 8166 2834 8167 2835 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 130DEG 9KT 2842 8133

52

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FLZ045-053-144-110215-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
934 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH OVER SOUTHERN LAKE...SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE...AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT.

AT 930 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 13 MILES
WEST OF POINCIANA PLACE TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POINCIANA...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE CELEBRATION...INTERCESSION CITY...ANIMAL KINGDOM AND THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2841 8196 2841 8157 2806 8133 2806 8136
      2808 8135 2810 8146 2814 8146 2814 8152
      2820 8153 2826 8156 2826 8166 2834 8167
      2836 8185 2834 8186 2834 8195 2838 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 145DEG 12KT 2812 8169 2822 8161
          2808 8137

CRISTALDI