Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
443 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.UPDATE...
DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO ADD A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE GREATER AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. ALSO THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE LITTLE WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012/

TONIGHT-WED...GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE THRU INDEPENDENCE DAY AS PERSISTENT TROFFING OVER THE ERN
SEA BOARD KEEPS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL AND S FL PENINSULA. LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AS THE DEEP LYR S/SWRLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BLO
H70 WILL WEAKEN AS WELL...MAKING IT EASIER FOR LOW LVL THERMALS TO
PUNCH INTO THE COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE WITH H50 TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM -7C TO
-8C. NEVERTHELESS...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
TAKE PLACE.

WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR ON TUE...AND ISOLD AT THAT.
COVERAGE INCREASES TO 30PCT AREAWIDE ON WED AS LOW LVL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND DEEP SWRLY FLOW FOCUSES ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
THE ERN PENINSULA. NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING ABOUT THIS WX PATTERN IN
TERMS OF MAX/MIN TEMP REGIME...OTHER THAN THE SW FLOW WILL KEEP
READINGS A FEW DEG ABV CLIMO AVG: AFTN MAXES L/M90S...MRNG MINS
L/M70S.

THU-SUN...(PREV DISC)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS WHILE EC FL SHOULD HAVE
SOME DECREASE IN HEIGHTS AS WEAK TROFFING ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED
NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH VIA AN
EASTERLY WAVE SO POPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH THROUGH MANY OF
THE PERIODS WITH ISOLD NORTH/SCT SOUTH THURS THEN SCT ALL AREAS
FRI-SUN. A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PERSIST WITH LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING OVER THE PENINSULA AND STORMS FOCUSED ON
SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S
INTERIOR AND LOWER 90S AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES THRU 03/18Z UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED: BTWN
03/00Z-03/03Z...SFC WNDSHFT FM SSE TO SW AOB 12KTS COASTAL SITES
ASSOCD WITH THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE. BTWN 03/09Z-03/13Z...LCL MVFR
VSBYS IN BR.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL MEANDER BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
PENINSULA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. STEADY S/SWRLY FLOW WILL RESULT:
LIGHT TO GENTLE S OF THE CAPE...GENTLE TO MODERATE N OF THE CAPE AS
PERSISTENT TROFFING OVR THE ERN SEABOARD PRODUCES A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER
PGRAD. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...2-3FT OFFSHORE. THE SRLY WIND
COMPONENT WILL PLACE THE SRN LEG IN THE SHADOW OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY SEAS WITH DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC S
OF A LINE FROM VERO BEACH GREATER ABACO ISLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  91 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  74  93  74  93 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  74  89  75  90 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  73  88  75  89 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  74  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  30
SFB  74  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  74  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  73  88  73  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WEITLICH
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-022100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE AT AREA BEACHES TODAY DUE
TO TIDAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FULL MOON. REMEMBER TO
SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD...AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID WEEK.

ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE
BECOMING SCATTERED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

MOSES/CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
359 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

FLZ054-059-064-022100-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-ST. LUCIE-
359 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER
COUNTY...EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

AT 352 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER PALM
CITY...THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG INTERSTATE 95 ACROSS INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2701 8011 2700 8042 2770 8062 2775 8042
      2746 8030 2743 8031 2745 8030 2742 8029
      2742 8031 2739 8029 2740 8027 2738 8029
      2735 8027 2737 8026 2733 8026 2723 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 000DEG 5KT 2718 8032

WEITLICH

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