Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
1.8 INCHES PRECIP WATER AND E/SE FLOW UP THRU 10K FT. THIS IS MORE
MOIST THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGHER PWATS EXIST OVER THE INTERIOR BASED
ON TAMPA SOUNDING OF 2.2 INCHES. SO THE HIGHER POPS ADVERTISED LOOK
WARRANTED. LOWEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AT
50 PERCENT...WITH LIKELY 60-70 PERCENT POPS INTERIOR AND SOUTH
COAST.  RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS (-6C AT 500 MB) AND UNIMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH LIMITED SFC HEATING WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. PERSISTENT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS SET UP AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK RIDGE AXIS NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GENERATE A MODERATE S/SERLY BREEZE
ACRS THE LCL ATLC...SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. LIMITED
FETCH LENGTH WITH THE WINDS COMING OFF THE NRN BAHAMAS...RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY SHORT WAVE PDS GENERALLY AOB 6SEC. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS WITH FOCUS NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  76  84  75 /  50  40  60  40
MCO  89  74  87  74 /  50  50  70  50
MLB  86  76  84  76 /  60  60  70  50
VRB  86  75  84  76 /  60  60  70  50
LEE  89  74  86  75 /  50  40  60  40
SFB  89  75  87  74 /  50  40  60  40
ORL  89  74  86  74 /  50  50  70  50
FPR  86  75  84  77 /  70  60  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

UPDATES...KELLY
IMPACT WX...WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-222200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1050 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA PUSH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REMEMBER
THAT LIGHTNING MAKES EVERY THUNDERSTORM DANGEROUS...EVEN IF THEY
ARE ONLY PRODUCING A FEW STRIKES. IF THUNDER IS HEARD...SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS OR IN AN ENCLOSED ALL METAL VEHICLE. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE MORE PERSISTENT BANDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCUR.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS
ALSO WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WEITLICH/BRAGAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FLZ045-053-144-222030-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
339 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING OVER SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE
COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

AT 332 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER ANIMAL
KINGDOM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE LIGHTNING STORM INCLUDE CLERMONT AND
LAKE LOUISA.

VISITORS TO THE ORLANDO THEME PARKS SHOULD MOVE INDOORS AND AWAY FROM
RIDES AS SOON AS THUNDER IS HEARD. FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF PARK
STAFF.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME
ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING AND
LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2864 8171 2833 8151 2825 8163 2826 8166
      2834 8167 2834 8179 2836 8181 2849 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 145DEG 11KT 2835 8165

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