Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT/THU...LTST GUID POINTS TO INCREASING MOISTURE FETCH FROM
THE S WITH BRISK WINDS HELPING TO INCREASE PWAT LEVEL TO NEARLY 2
INCHES BY EARLY THU. WITH CONTINUED FAVORABLE SW STEERING WINDS
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WL KEEP MENTION OF SCT PCPN
AND ISOLD THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR THU...AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AHEAD WITH DEEP CONVECTION
FORECAST. HIGH PWAT AND FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SW FLOW. W/SW STEERING
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BRING PERIODS OV HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEFLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE ONSET OF STORMS. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WHICH WL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
DELAY/LIMIT AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...HOWEVER 70 PERCENT COVERAGE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOKS REALISTIC WHEN CONSIDERING ALL
PARAMETERS.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISC...
FRI...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WASH OUT ON FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY IN
PRESENCE OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN PAST DAYS WILL
LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS.

SAT-TUE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER FOR THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TO OUR NORTH....THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY
THE FRONT IS NEVER QUITE SCOURED OUT...DEPICTING A MORE REALISTIC
SCENARIO FOR FRONTAL "PASSAGES" THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR DEPICTION OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BOTH SHOW IT LIFTING
THE HIGHER MOISTURE THAT POOLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BACK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE SWITCH FROM EARLIER SCENARIOS...HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS
HIGH AS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT INCREASED POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR SAT-MON AND 30 PERCENT EVERYWHERE ON TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL TO
WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT STEERING LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE WEST...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME ACTIVITY TO DRIFT EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/STORMS WL HAVE POTENTIAL TO OCCASIONALLY LIMIT CIG/VSBY
ELEMENTS AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. GENERAL
PLANNING WOULD EXPECT HIGHER RESTRICTIONS DURING TIME OF PEAK
HEATING WHICH WILL PROMOTE NUMEROUS AREAS OF PCPN AFT 15Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
INTERRUPTIONS IN STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS LARGE LAKES
GENERALLY ARE NOT FAVORABLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THU/FRI...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THU NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON FRIDAY. WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MORE VARIABLE
BY LATE FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THU. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS INCREASING TO 9-10SEC.

SAT-MON...EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE
ON SATURDAY BECOMING 2-3FT OVER ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  72  85 /  40  70  30  30
MCO  73  87  72  91 /  40  70  30  40
MLB  76  87  71  88 /  40  70  40  40
VRB  75  87  71  89 /  40  70  40  40
LEE  73  87  74  90 /  40  70  30  40
SFB  74  89  73  91 /  40  70  30  40
ORL  74  87  74  91 /  40  70  30  40
FPR  76  86  71  89 /  40  70  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
IMPACT WEATHER...WEITLICH
RADAR...SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1226 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-062300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1226 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY INTO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST ACROSS LAKE COUNTY
EASTWARD TO VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH.

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ON INLAND LAKES...THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR FAST NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING STORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR UNTIL THE STORMS PASS YOUR
LOCATION.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL EXIST OFFSHORE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL BOATS IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...
EXCEPT NEAR A STALLING OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

LASCODY/WEITLICH

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