Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...REMNANTS OF DIFFUSE BOUNDARY APPEAR TO BE TRACED OUT BY
CLOUD LINE EXTENDING ENE FROM JUST OFFSHORE SEBASTIAN INLET. SFC
METARS SHOW ENHANCED NNE FLOW NORTH OF THIS LINE WITH LIGHT WINDS
TO THE SOUTH OF IT. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MID-UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNUSUALLY STRONG WSW WINDS ABOVE H50 FOR
MID MAY OVER THE PENINSULA.

TODAY...LOCAL WIND REGIME EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH.
ECSB WILL DEVELOP/PUSH INLAND WITH A FASTER INLAND PUSH OVER VOLUSIA
AND NORTHERN BREVARD COS COMPARED TO POINTS SOUTH. SIMILAR TO FRI...
FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE HAVE TWEAKED POPS BACK TO 20 NORTH OWING
TO THE BOUNDARY GETTING WEST OF THERE...COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WESTERLY STEERING LAYER/H85-H50 WINDS. "BREEZY" WORDING LOOKS GOOD
THERE AS WELL. EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW (20-30 PCT) POPS...H50
TEMPS OF -11C STILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET...WITH L80S ALONG THE COAST AND
VOLUSIA/NORTHERN BREVARD WITH U80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED POPS/COVERAGE DOESN'T WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS ATTM...WILL NEED
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND AMD AS NEEDED...SIMILAR TO FRI. BREEZY
NE WINDS (~15-17KT) EXPECTED AT KDAB/KTIX...WITH SPEEDS A LITTLE
LESS FARTHER INLAND AND SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...NNE-NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 15KT NORTH OF KXMR AS
FCST DUE TO TIGHTENING PGRAD W-SW OF LOW PRES CENTER DEEPENING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. SEAS NOT TO FAR UPSTREAM (41012) HAVE INCREASED
TO 5FT SO INCREASING TREND IN SEA/SWELL FCST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL.
NOSIG CHANGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND AND THE 40S AND 50S AT THE
COAST. REPEATED GROUND/FUEL WETTING FROM RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS HAS DECREASED THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER.

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
437 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-192100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
437 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH LOWER LEVELS TODAY WILL MOVE
STORMS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
RESTRICT STORM COVERAGE TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS INCLUDING LAKE COUNTY AND AREAS
ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.

IN ADDTION TO DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS... RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OF
40-50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF COINS. MOVE INDOORS AT THE
FIRST SIGN OF A STORM.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROLS FOR
LOCAL RIP CURRENT INFORMATION WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH. ONLY
SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREAS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF COINS...IN
ADDITION TO DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

GLITTO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
203 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FLZ054-058-059-191900-
INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-
203 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHERN INDIAN RIVER
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 8 MILES EAST
OF FORT DRUM AND IN CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THESE
STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 2774 8052 2752 8045 2736 8097 2756 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 231DEG 4KT 2752 8067

67