Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SAGGING INTO CTRL FL FROM THE N/W IS
PRODUCING A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND FLOW. ECSB HAS ALREADY FORMED
NEAR/NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH LIGHT S-SSW TO ITS SOUTH. SKIES
HAVE BECOME PCLDY AS EXPECTED WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POPPING UP IN MANY
AREAS. THUS FAR...TS HAVE REMAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF OKEE COUNTY LOOK LIKE THEY MAY
INTENSIFY INTO TS SHORTLY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT STEADY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AS BASE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH PIVOTS EWD AND SEA/LAKE AND OUTFLOW BDRYS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
/INTERACT. UNLESS THE COVERAGE REALLY RAMPS UP BTWN NOW AND 4 PM...
DON'T PLAN ON RUNNING WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD AND WILL MENTION JUST
SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.

FRIDAY...CWA REMAINS IN WSW MID LEVEL FLO PATTERN WITH POS TILT
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SERN SEABOARD ACROSS NORTH FL AND INTO THE
ERN GOMEX. MEAN DRYING IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WITH
PWATS DROPPING TO NEAR 1.25" NORTH AND 1.5 - 1.6" SOUTH. SHAVED POPS
BACK TO 30 AREAWIDE...AND WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR NOW GIVEN ADJCT CWA FCSTS...MID SHIFT
CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED.

FRI NIGHT-SUN...THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTH GULF OF MEXICO. AS IT DOES THE MOISTURE RIBBON IN THE DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAIT. THE 17/12Z GFS AND THE 17/00Z ECMWF SHOW A DRY SLOT ROTATING
OVER THE PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
TO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING A
DROP IN THE MEAN LAYER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO VALIDATE LOWER RAIN CHANCES. MORNING
LOWS SAT AND SUN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MARTIN COUNTY
BEACHES. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE MID 80S AT THE COAST THANKS TO A SEA
BREEZE AND THE UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR. STAYS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND FLORIDA.

MON-WED...(PREVIOUS EXTENDED) STUBBORN MID LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY
DAMPENS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL H50 HEIGHTS REMAIN OVERHEAD. FEEL AS THOUGH GFS PRES PATTERN
IS LIKELY CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS WEST CARIBBEAN LOW...AND WILL
LIKELY BE LOOKING AT WEAKER FLOW OUT OF THE SE OR SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEE NO REASON TO DEPART FROM CURRENT FCST OF LOW END SCT (30)
POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
CLIMO BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS THINNED OUT AS FCST...WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOWING A SLOW INCREASE. ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFT 19Z WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 35KT POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...WHILE FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE HAS BEEN
KEEPING WINDS S-SSW...LOCAL WIND REGIME WILL BECOME RATHER CHAOTIC
THE NEXT H24 AS SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE ADJCT ATLC. HOWEVER
SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 10KT WITH 2-4FT SEAS IN A LONG PERIOD
(10-12S) SWELL.

SAT-SUN...WEAK GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT ONSHORE AFTER FRI...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING 10 KT OR LESS. SWANS
BEEN A FOOT OR SO HIGH SO LIMITING SEAS TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2 TO
3 FEET NEARSHORE.

MON-TUE...SEAS MAY BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET AS A 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL PROPAGATES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH LIGHT WIND PATTERN. REPEATED
GROUND/FUEL WETTING FROM RECENT RAINS OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS HAS
DECREASED THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  83  68  84 /  30  30  20  30
MCO  68  89  68  87 /  30  30  20  30
MLB  68  84  70  84 /  30  30  20  30
VRB  67  86  69  85 /  40  30  30  30
LEE  68  88  68  88 /  30  30  20  30
SFB  69  89  69  87 /  30  30  20  30
ORL  70  88  69  87 /  30  30  20  30
FPR  67  85  69  86 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
501 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-172115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
501 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE STATE TODAY...WHICH IN
ADDITION TO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INCREASE INSTABILITY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGHER.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20
MPH...AND STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
ACQUIRE ROTATION AS THEY MOVE OVER THE COAST WITH FUNNEL CLOUDS OR
A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY...WITH
TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARDS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 20 KNOTS.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE ENVIRONMENTAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO DRY
FUELS. SOME RAIN WETTING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHTNING
STORMS COULD INITIATE NEW FIRES.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK WITH THE BEACH PATROL
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SWIM ONLY WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST STARTING THIS
WEEKEND SHIFTING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOWARDS THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

MOSES

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
427 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

FLZ054-172115-
INDIAN RIVER-
427 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

AT 421 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER WINTER BEACH...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE POINTE WEST...VERO BEACH AND GIFFORD.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

SOME WEAK ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED ALOFT WITH THIS STORMS HISTORY.
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 2755 8034 2756 8036 2765 8055 2780 8046
      2778 8040 2771 8036 2763 8034 2762 8033
      2758 8032 2756 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 291DEG 16KT 2769 8043

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
537 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

FLZ047-054-172215-
INDIAN RIVER-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
537 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...NORTHERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT.

AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BLUE CYPRESS LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE RURAL SOUTHWEST BREVARD AND WESTERN INDIAN
RIVER COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2768 8088 2782 8088 2783 8087 2788 8049
      2770 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 260DEG 21KT 2777 8082

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
553 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

FLZ045-046-141-147-172245-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
553 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY...EASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT.

AT 552 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS 9 MILES WEST OF
MIMS...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

SOME ROTATION ALOFT IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 2861 8078 2861 8080 2859 8079 2844 8086
      2860 8110 2873 8101 2866 8082 2866 8081
      2866 8080 2865 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 296DEG 10KT 2862 8099

KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
555 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

FLZ064-172245-
MARTIN-
555 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT.

AT 552 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER PORT MAYACA...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2696 8062 2699 8062 2700 8063 2709 8067
      2710 8066 2709 8029 2695 8031 2695 8041
      2695 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 278DEG 9KT 2700 8058

KELLY