Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
913 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...LOW (STRATUS) CLOUDS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WILL BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT
SKIES OVERALL TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MORNING 10Z KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS
A PWAT OF 1.45 INCHES AND A 500 MB TEMPERATURE OF -11.5C. A VERY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES TO PENETRATE INLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET TODAY
INTO THE EVENING DUE THE ABOVE MENTIONED AND VARIOUS BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS EXPECTED. COIN SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH WILL ALL BE IN PLAY FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL EXIST ORLANDO METRO NORTHWARD AND
TOWARD THE COAST.

STILL A WARM DAY EXPECTED AND WILL SEE IF INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
AN IMPACT ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S INTO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...SLOWING IMPROVING CIGS I-4 NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING...BECOMING PREVAILING VFR. BTWN 07/15Z-07/18Z...SFC WNDSHFT
COASTAL SITES FROM W TO E/NE ARND 10KTS WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BTWN 07/18Z-07/23Z...SCT IFR TSRAS N OF
KVRB-KLAL...ISOLD MVFR TSRAS S OF KVRB-KLAL...SFC WNDSHFT FROM W TO
E/SE INTERIOR SITES EXCEPT KLEE AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. BTWN 07/23Z-08/01Z BCMG VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MORNING WINDS
FORECAST TO BECOME E/ENE CAPE NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING &
AFTERNOON AND E/ESE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CAPE. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FORM FAIRLY EARLY AND PUSH INLAND. SEAS 1-2 FT NEAR
SHORE AND 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS EXPECTED WITH CELL MOVEMENT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...COIN SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY STORM
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ALL IN PLAY. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN (SLIGHTLY) OUT OF THE S LATER THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING FRONTAL TROF
PUSHES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND PULLS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK
TO THE N. HI PRES BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
GENERATE A LONG N/NE FETCH OVER THE SERN SEABOARD THAT WILL PUSH A
MODERATE SWELL INTO THE LCL ATLC OVERNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2-3FT
NEARSHORE...3-4FT OFFSHORE. SCT EVNG TSTMS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF FORT
PIERCE INLET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(PREVIOUS MODIFIED)...TODAY-TONIGHT...NO WIND/RH
CONCERNS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROF STALLS
OVER C FL. MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE TROF WILL ALLOW SCT
SHRAS/TSTMS TO FORM THIS AFTN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHFT TO THE E AROUND MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST AND BY LATE
AFTN INTERIOR COUNTIES AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES
INLAND. WSW TRANSPORT WINDS AOB 10KTS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR
DISPERSION CONDITIONS. LIGHTNING STORMS MAY IGNITE NEW WILDFIRES
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY WORSEN CONDITIONS LOCALLY. CELL MOVEMENT
APPEARS OUT OF THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1115 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-072200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1115 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS
FOCI FOR AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS.  THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 4 CORRIDOR BUT MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
OSCEOLA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SEA
BREEZE COLLISION.  STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY TOWARD THE EAST
BUT MAY BE SLOW AND ERRATIC ALONG BOUNDARIES.  THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.  ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE INCLUDING THE INLAND
LAKES.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CHECK WITH
LIFEGUARDS ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH. SWIM ONLY
WHERE THERE IS A LIFEGUARD ON DUTY.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
THERE IS A HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE FURTHER ELEVATED TODAY AS SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRUSH FIRES CAN START EASILY FROM
MOST CAUSES. UNATTENDED FIRES ARE LIKELY TO ESCAPE IN DRY FUELS.
FIRES MAY START RAPIDLY AND SHORT DISTANCE SPREADING OF EMBERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. OUTDOOR BURNING MAY BE PROHIBITED IN YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT BOATERS AS THEY CROSS THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY/BRAGAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1247 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

FLZ041-141-071730-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
1247 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH OVER EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT.

AT 1240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY.  THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS TOWARD MAYTOWN MAY ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2880 8081 2879 8106 2881 8107 2883 8111
      2882 8113 2881 8113 2919 8127 2925 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 147DEG 0KT 2911 8112

KELLY