Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
910 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE...LTST REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL SW FLOW HAS BROUGHT MORNING
PW UP TO 1.40 AT TBW WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ON THE E SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA. VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.40 ARE REASONABLE TO ASSUME FOR
THIS AFTERNOON OVER ECFL.

SOURCE/S OF LIFT...A LIMITED SLOW MOVING EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FM SOUTH BREVARD CO SOUTHWARD BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A LOOSELY FORMED WEST COAST BOUNDARY MOVING QUICKLY
INLAND TWD THE AREA DURING EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SB FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COUPLED WITH OUTFLOW FROM PCPN FROM EARLY TO MID AFTN ACROSS THE
AREA.

INSTABILITY...RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TMPS INVOF -12C WL PROMOTE
PARCEL ASCENT AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING UPR WIND
MAX SHOULD ADD TO ASCENT POTENTIAL DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON. ADEQUATE SB HEATING COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE WL PROMOTE
SOME STORM POTENTIAL WITH POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS MAINLY
FROM OSCEOLA CO NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON.

(MODIFIED PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSON)...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS INCREASE OVER EC FL TODAY. AN APPROACHING IMPULSE WITHIN U/L
TROF AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. LATEST
MODELS AND TRENDS INDICATE STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN OVER NORTHERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS BY LATE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY PUSHING
EASTWARD WITH WSW STEERING FLOW INCREASING TO 25-30 KT. FRONTAL
TROUGH PRESSING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE
SOUTH TODAY YIELDING A WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT STOUT
ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION OVER THE CENTRAL
BREVARD CO AREAS NORTH. BESIDES THE LIGHTNING THREAT...STRONG
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 40-50KT WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HAVE KEPT A LOW POP IN EASTERN SIDE OF CWA FOR
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT ACTIVITY MAY BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNSET. HAVE
TRENDED POPS FROM HIGH END SCATTERED (50) NORTH WITH A MORNING START
NORTH DOWN TO 40 PERCENT AFTERNOON ONLY SOUTH.  DAYTIME HIGHS
GENERALLY MID 80S...COULD APPROACH UPPER 80S IN SPOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTH PROVIDED PRECIP ARRIVAL IS NOT TOO EARLY. OVERNIGHT MINS IN
THE MID 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 15Z...THEN TEMPO REDUCTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
INCREASING FM 17Z THROUGH SUNSET. ACTIVITY PUSHING QUICKLY TO THE
EAST 25-30KT. SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
SHRA/TSRA...UP TO 40-50KT IN A FEW STRONGER TSRA. MOST OF THE TSRA
PUSHING OFF EAST COAST BY 01/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SSW-SW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TODAY WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO THE
SOUTH AND FRONT PRESSING TOWARD THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. OFFSHORE
WIND COMPONENT STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. MARINERS WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 35KT IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/AVIATION/MARINE...JP/AB
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...RW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1048 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-312200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1048 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COUPLE WITH A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH STEERING LEVELS
WILL PUSH STORMS QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 30 MPH. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN STORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL. WIND GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. PERSONS OUTDOORS
SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST AND MOVE INDOORS QUICKLY AT THE FIRST
SIGN OF AN APPROACHING STORM.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SCATTERED STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE TO THE WESTERN SKY AND SEEK SAFE HARBOUR IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING STORMS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL LINGERING SWELL WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK TO
THE BEACHES. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE OR COIN-SIZED
AND LARGER HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.

GLITTO/BOWEN/PENDERGRAST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
134 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

FLZ044-144-311815-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
134 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT.

AT 131 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER
LEESBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE FRUITLAND PARK AND MID FLORIDA LAKES.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.

LAT...LON 2897 8182 2896 8166 2900 8166 2900 8165
      2884 8153 2865 8195 2866 8196 2887 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 238DEG 24KT 2880 8186

BOWEN