Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND SPREAD EASTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST. STRONGER STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST WITH ANY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE DEVELOPING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS INITIAL CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER SHOULD THEN SEE CONTINUING CHANCES OF
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RESIDE IN
THE 60S TONIGHT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING PRECIP BAND ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OF THE TREASURE COAST BY LATE DAY
TOMORROW. A FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT
MAINLY FROM ORLANDO AREA SOUTHWARD IN THE MORNING AND THEN
CONTINUING ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO MID DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
SO TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOW 80S.

MON...A PLEASANT DAY WITH MOST AREAS STARTING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALG
THE COAST.

TUE-FRI...ONSHORE (E/NE) FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ESP AT THE
COAST. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MARINE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ASSOCD WITH THIS SMALL SURGE AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE TUE MORNING.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO N FL BY THU AND DECREASE
THE ONSHORE FLOW. PRETTY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE ATLC SHOULD KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL WED-FRI. MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE LOW-MID 80S
EXCEPT UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR IN
ANY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS AFT AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
THEN PRECEDE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BEGIN PUSHING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA AFTER 06Z. MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. AS THE
BOUNDARY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER IN THE
DAY VFR CONDS WILL RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WILL STILL BE A CONCERN FOR BOATERS INTO THE EVENING. A SURGE IN
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. THESE
WINDS WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 10-15
KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. WILL ISSUE
A SCA FOR WINDS STARTING SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MON...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NW
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TO START BUT FLOW SHOULD VEER TO THE N AND NE
DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 4 FT OFFSHORE.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND TIGHTEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN
15-20 KNOT WINDS TUE. THE ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WED-THU AS
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS. SEAS WILL NOT SUBSIDE AS
QUICKLY THOUGH WITH 7 FT OFFSHORE WED...5 FT THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  80  58  79 /  50  20   0   0
MCO  64  83  59  83 /  50  30   0   0
MLB  68  80  61  80 /  40  40   0   0
VRB  65  82  60  80 /  40  40  10   0
LEE  65  82  59  82 /  50  20   0   0
SFB  65  83  59  82 /  50  20   0   0
ORL  66  82  61  82 /  50  30   0   0
FPR  65  82  58  80 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY

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