Special Marine Warning 79, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AXIS OF THE FEATURE LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL TREK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ENHANCED OVER
THE REGION BY SOME MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY. HAVE KEPT POPS HIGH WITH
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY EARLY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS. MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S MUCH OF THE AREA...
PERHAPS REACHING NEAR 90 A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS PERSIST TONIGHT WITH LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND VORT
ENERGY. OVERNIGHT MINS CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...PLACING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE REGION AND MUCH DRIER AIR CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...
ALONG WITH SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.

THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (AROUND 30 PERCENT) WITH A DELAYED
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND EASTWARD MOVING ACTIVITY...AND LOWER POP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS...AT 20-30 PERCENT WHERE
LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO MAKE BETTER
PROGRESS INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL MEAN SEVERAL DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST BEFORE THE ONSET OF
THE SEA BREEZE. MID 90S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST AND IF SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW DELAYS THE ONSET OF THE
SEA BREEZE. OVERNIGHT MINS CONTINUE ON THE WARM AND MUGGY
SIDE...WITH MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MVFR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN EXPECT INCREASING
TEMPO REDUCTIONS IN MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS FROM NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SFC WINDS
GUSTING TO 30-40KT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...SE WINDS AROUND 15KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE...UP TO 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW WITH GUSTS 30-40KT.

TUE-THUR...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING
PREVAILING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
RIDGE AXIS AND LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY
10-15KTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 2-3FT...WITH 4FT WELL OFFSHORE AND
DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 9 SEC. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHEST PROSPECTS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS NORTH OF THE CAPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  76  92  76 /  70  40  40  20
MCO  89  75  93  75 /  70  40  40  20
MLB  88  75  91  75 /  70  40  30  20
VRB  88  75  90  74 /  60  40  30  10
LEE  89  76  94  77 /  70  40  40  20
SFB  90  76  94  77 /  70  40  40  20
ORL  89  76  94  77 /  70  40  40  20
FPR  87  76  91  74 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....MOSES

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