Special Marine Warning 66, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND TS DEBBY IS PRODUCING STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR OVER WC AND SW FL EVIDENCED BY THE MANY CELLS EXHIBITING
STRONG ROTATION WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS THE CELLS LIFT
NORTHWARD THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM
SHEAR AND THUS WEAKENING. HOWEVER CONCERN REMAINS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES ESP LAKE AND MARTIN COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.

LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS PRODUCING ABOUT 0.25 INCH PER HOUR
ACROSS ORLANDO NORTHWARD. WITH LITTLE MOTION ASSOCD WITH DEBBY...
WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS
MODEL REMAINS THE ONLY CONSISTENT MODEL BRINGING DEBBY E/NE ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE
ABANDONED THEIR PREVIOUS WESTWARD MOTION. THE ECMWF NOW BRINGS
DEBBY VERY SLOWLY NORTH TO THE FL PANHANDLE WED NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE WET FOR CENTRAL FL AND THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ESP IF DEBBY DOES TRACK ACROSS NORTH
FL AS THE GFS HAS BEEN ADAMANTLY SAYING FOR DAYS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND GUSTY WINDS
30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS (ORLANDO NORTH AND WEST) INTO TONIGHT.

MON-WED (PREVIOUS)...THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE NON-GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE NOTWITHSTANDING...PREMISE OF THE EARLY WEEK
FORECAST IS BASED ON NHC TRACK WHICH KEEPS T.S. "DEBBY" WEST OF
FLORIDA BUT STILL IN A REGIME FEATURING A SE TO SOUTH FEED OF VERY
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON ITS EAST SIDE WITH HIGH (60-70 PCT) RAIN
CHANCES MON-TUE...DECREASING TO NEAR CLIMO (40) BY WED. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...AND THE OVERALL TREND OVER THE LAST FEW
FORECAST CYCLES IS TO DELAY/DIMINISH THE EXTENT OF MEAN
DRYING...AS BOTH MODEL AND GRIDDED POP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO GET
NUDGED UPWARDS EACH CYCLE. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 1-2 CATS BELOW CLIMO
MON...A CAT OR LESS ON TUE...THEN NEAR CLIMO ON WED. MINS CONTINUE
ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.

THU-SUN...GENERAL TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARD WEAK/FLAT H50 RIDGE
OVER THE CTRL-ERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DRIER GFS AND
VERY MOST ECM...SHOWING TEMPS AND POPS NEAR CLIMO. WILL LIKELY GET
A CLEARER PICTURE ON THE LATE WEEK WEATHER ONCE THE GUIDANCE GETS
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF "DEBBY" AND DISPOSITION
OF ITS REMNANTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA POSSIBLE. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR
CONDS AFT 00Z WITH OCNL IFR CONDS FROM MCO NORTHWARD. SOUTHERN
TERMINALS MAY MAINTAIN VFR CIGS WITH TEMPO MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE 993 MB TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A TIGHT SOUTHERLY PRES GRAD RESULTING IN AROUND 20 KNOTS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SO HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS WINDS THRU TUESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUE...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  86  79  87 /  90  70  70  60
MCO  75  86  77  90 /  90  70  70  60
MLB  78  88  80  90 /  90  70  60  60
VRB  79  89  81  90 /  80  70  50  60
LEE  75  86  77  89 /  90  70  70  60
SFB  76  87  77  90 /  90  70  70  60
ORL  75  86  78  90 /  90  70  70  60
FPR  80  88  82  91 /  80  70  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MARTIN-NORTHERN
     LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
419 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ045-053-242115-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
419 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...NORTH
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
HARMONY...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE US 192 NEAR HARMONY...LAKE MARY JANE...AND
NARCOOSSEE.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE BRIEF...SMALL TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF THESE STORMS APPROACH
YOUR AREA.

MOSES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ053-058-242130-
OKEECHOBEE-OSCEOLA-
427 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...SOUTH
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF KISSIMMEE PRAIRIE PRESERVE...MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE LAKE KISSIMMEE...LAKE MARIAN...AND STATE
ROUTE 60 NEAR THE OSCEOLA-POLK COUNTY LINE.

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE BRIEF...SMALL TORNADOES.
MOVE INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF THESE STORMS APPROACH
YOUR AREA.

MOSES