Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR INDIAN RIVER...SAINT
LUCIE...MARTIN...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES...

ALL EYES REMAIN ON TROPICAL STORM ISAAC THIS MORNING AS IT PULLS
AWAY FROM HAITI AND HEADS TOWARDS FAR EASTERN CUBA...EXPECTED TO
PULL NORTH OF CUBA BY LATER TONIGHT AND HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ON SUNDAY.

THE PENINSULA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND DEPARTING 55KT 250MB JET. MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN
THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT...WHICH IS WHAT SPARKED THE LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING. THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WITH US THROUGH THE DAY...SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE OUTER PERIPHERY FROM ISAAC LATER THIS EVENING.

BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ONSHORE...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL ALONG
THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND DON'T EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE
THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE INCREASED POPS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND MODELS...FROM
40-50 PERCENT FOR OSCEOLA-BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH TO ONLY 20 PERCENT
FOR NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

FORECAST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE ADDRESSED DURING THE DAY AS FORECASTS FOR
ISAAC ARE REFINED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUN-TUES...FORECAST FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO RELY HEAVILY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ISAAC. LATEST NHC
TRACK...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...EMERGES THE
SYSTEM FROM CUBA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LESS TIME OVER
LAND AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IN
ADDITION TO THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AWAY FROM
THE CENTER COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MOVING INTO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY... THE TREASURE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
RAISED FOR THESE AREAS FOR THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. ALL PERSONS IN
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
LATEST FORECAST ON ISAAC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF ISAAC.

WITH ISAAC EXPECTED TO DRAW CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SQUALLS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING
RAINFALL. PROJECTED PATH INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
KEEP EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN CONDUCIVE AREA FOR TORNADOES IN OUTER
RAINBANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER LCL ATLC MOVING ONSHORE COAST
SOUTH OF KTTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST
OF KISM-KDAB. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO
40KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF TS ISAAC WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEA STATE WILL
INCREASE AS A RESULT WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 4-6FT
OVER THE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET...AND MARINERS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE SITUATION
AS ANY CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF ISAAC MAY REQUIRE AN EXPANSION OF
WATCHES AND WARNINGS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT STARTING LATE
TONIGHT.

SUN-WED...FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK/INTENSITY OF ISSAC. THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OVER THIS
AREA. MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECAST ON ISSAC
AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED INTO
THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIST OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AS ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWEST INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AND TOWARD THE KEYS/SW FL
COAST SUNDAY EVE AND EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

&&

MOSES/KELLY/BLOTTMAN/BOWEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
451 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-252100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
451 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTAINING A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE
ASHORE MAINLY ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS TODAY. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
RAIN AMOUNTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD MAINLY FROM FORT PIERCE TO STUART AND JUPITER AS
WELL AS INLAND AREAS TO INDIANTOWN AND THE CITY OF OKEECHOBEE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE NUISANCE FLOODING OF SOME ROADWAYS AND LOW
SPOTS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG STORMS MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND
GUSTS BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS. AREA LAKES MAY SEE STRONG GUSTS
AS WELL MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
DETERIORATING SEA STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS FROM APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC.
REFER TO MARINE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION. SMALL CRAFT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN IN PORT SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON ISAAC
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD EASTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PENDERGRAST