Lake Wind Advisory 16, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...SURFACE TROUGH NOW WELL SOUTH OF CTRL FL WITH MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH DEEP LAYER
NE FLOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE CWA. ONLY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED ON KMLB
ATTM WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC AND
OVER MARTIN COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH MEAN
DRYING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SAGGING S-SW ACROSS THE CWA FROM
N-S. LOW TOPPED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH RAPIDLY SWWD AND
ONSHORE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS...WILL NUDGE
UP TO 30 AND KEEP SMALL CHANCE GOING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SANS
LAKE COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BRIEF PASSING -SHRA EXPECTED INVOF ALL COASTAL
AERODROMES DAB-SUA AND HAVE KEPT VCSH THERE GOING THROUGH 14Z. SMALL
CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDS...HOWEVER COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE NOT NEARLY
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOCAL BUOY OBS SHOW WIND/SEA CONDS CONTINUE TO TREND TWD
SCA WITH WINDS/SEAS NOW PUSHING 20KT/6FT AT 41009 AND 7-8FT AT 41010.
PGRAD WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS FROM THE MID-ATLC AND SE TOWARD FL. SCA ALREADY IN PLACE
SO NO NEED FOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX GRAPHICS....BRAGAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
527 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-152100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
527 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COMBINATION OF A MOIST AIRMASS...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS PUSH THE SEA
BREEZE QUICKLY INLAND. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...CONTAINING DOWNBURST WINDS 50 TO 60 MPH...HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEESBURG
TO CAPE CANAVERAL. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND A BUILDING NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH THE FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. STORM MOTION
WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW STORMS
MAY PUSH BACK TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE TREASURE COAST. STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ONE OR TWO
STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET
TONIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 15
TO 20 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

KELLY