Fire Weather Watch 19, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
906 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER
AIRMASS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

LTST VERTICAL SCANNING FROM THE 915 MHZ NETWORK @XMR SHOWS 30 KT
WINDS IN THE LOWEST (NEAR SURFACE) GATE RANGING TO 40 KTS NEAR 3K
FT. SFC GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30MPH AT TIMES OVER THE AREA WITH NEAR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME TODAY. UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTH
ALABAMA AND PANHANDLE AROUND THE LOWER 20S ATTM AND THIS AIRMASS WL
USHER SWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S ALL DAY. COOP MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
SUB FREEZING TEMPS IN SOME SPOTS...PRIMARILY WEST OF I-4 AND WL
AWAIT 12Z PKG TO ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR PSBL FREEZE BY 230 PM.

OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR MID 20S WITH COT'D
OVERNIGHT MIXING OF LL EXPECTED GENERALLY. SHOULD LOW SPOTS DECOUPLE
FOR A ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD AND A FREEZE WOULD CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

_________________

PREVIOUS DISC...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET BUT
STILL REMAIN ELEVATED UP TO AROUND 10 MPH INLAND TO 10 TO 15 MPH
ALONG THE COAST AS STRONG CAA CONTINUES. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
APPEAR TOO LOW WITH TEMPS WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THESE ADVECTIVE
EVENTS. WHILE ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...WENT ON AVERAGE ABOUT
3-4 DEGREES ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS PUTS VALUES
AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT LOW 40S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE
COAST OF ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTIES. STILL...WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
MUCH COLDER IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE IT LOOKS
QUITE CERTAIN THESE CONDS WILL OCCUR.

DKW

&&

.AVIATION...WITH SKC...ONLY CONCERN WL BE SFC WND GUSTS IN NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-24KT GUSTING TO 30KT THROUGH AROUND 23Z.

&&

VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS STEEPEN SEAS UP TO 8-10 FEET AND HIGHER IN
THE GULF STREAM. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR OFFSHORE VOLUSIA
COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ELSEWHERE. THE GALE WARNING WL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT 10 AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER HAZARD WITH COMBINATION OF
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES OVER ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-
     MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

JP/AB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1032 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-212200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1032 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY UP TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATS OVER AREA LAKES AND THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
WE'VE EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WIND CHILL IS
THE TEMPERATURE THE HUMAN BODY FEELS IF EXPOSED TO THE COMBINATION
OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND BUT IT DOES NOT AFFECT PLANTS. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG SOUTHWARD MOVING
LONGSHORE CURRENT WHICH CAN KNOCK SWIMMERS OFF SANDBARS INTO
DEEPER WATER. AVOID SWIMMING NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES WHERE RIP
CURRENTS MAY BE STRONG AND ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BUILD SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10
FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A LONG DURATION OF VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. ANY OUTDOOR FIRE WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE GRADUALLY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST OVER
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL PRODUCE CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE
AREA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

WEITLICH/BOWEN