Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CST THU JAN 12 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LOOKS LIKE A UNIFORM
5 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...HIGHEST IN THE
EAST. CONSENSUS ON QPF IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ROUGHLY /0.35-0.45/
TEMP CONSIDERATIONS WOULD PUT THE SNOW RATIO AROUND 15 TO 1...BUT
WILL KNOCK THAT DOWN TO ABOUT 13 TO 1 DUE TO THE WIND FRACTURING
SOME OF THAT SNOW.  PRECIP OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN MORE FRONTOGENETIC IN
NATURE RESULTING IN THE INITIAL NARROW BANDED LOOK TO THE RADAR
RETURNS. BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE BROAD SCALE FORCING
SCENARIO AS THE UPPER LOW IS DEEPENING...CLOSING OFF AND MOVING
EAST...WITH THE SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI SWINGING A BIT
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROF SHOULD TAKE ON SOME
NEGATIVE TILT CHARACTERISTICS. THE CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
MOVES ACROSS OHIO...BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD PRESSURE WEAKNESS BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN REGION.  WHAT IS LACKING WITH THIS
EVENT TODAY AND TONIGHT IS GOOD DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN
ADDITION TO GOOD CROSS HAIRS SIGNATURES.  I/M NOT SEEING A LOT OF
OMEGA IN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. IT DOES APPEAR WE HAVE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...WITH THE ISENTROPIC CHART SHOWING BETWEEN 2 TO
3G/KG.

SO TAKING ALL THIS TOGETHER...FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE WITH THE 5 TO
6 INCH AMOUNTS.

THE OTHER ELEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE FIRST FEW INCHES OF
THIS EVENT WILL GET LOCKED INTO THE BARE GROUND AND GENERALLY WON/T
BLOW/DRIFT MUCH. SO EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW TO RUN FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE PEAK OF THE
SNOWFALL WILL BE EARLY AFTERNOON IN MADISON AND LATE AFTERNOON
EVENING FOR MILWAUKEE...OF COURSE RAMPING UP AND TAPERING DOWN
AROUND THESE TIMES.

WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...THE INITIAL SNOW
SHOULD MELT. BUT AT THE SAME TIME...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY SO ROADS MAY BEGIN TO ICE UP...ESPECIALLY THE MORE
SECONDARY ROADS.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING
WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO FALL.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE REALIZED BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
FALLING THEREAFTER.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. MODELS SHOWING A WEAK WAVE IN THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
TO DROP THROUGH DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM HITTING 20
WEST...WHILE JUST SNEAKING INTO THE LOW 20S IN THE EAST. BREEZY
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE RECORD
SETTING HIGHS IN THE 50S YESTERDAY.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY.
BEST MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO JUST CLIP THE SW
FORECAST AREA...THOUGH THE NAM IS FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER AND WOULD
WARRANT HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD POPS THAN CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE BITING ON THIS
SOLUTION. COLDER AIR WILL LINGER IN THE AREA...SO HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW 20S.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AROUND NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH IN
THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY WARM THINGS
ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN. GFS SOLUTION EVEN SUGGESTING FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NOT GREAT CONSISTENCY
WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN MODELS...SO JUST LEFT
PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW.

GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRINGING ANOTHER LOW NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY...PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WI. WITH
SRN WI ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...THIS CURRENT SOLUTION
SUGGESTS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS A FAIRLY NEW SCENARIO...SO DID NOT PULL UP POPS MUCH...BUT
POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THIS SHOWS SOME RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD PUNCH OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. USED CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IF THE NEWER GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA BY
12-13Z AT KMSN...AND IN KMKE/KENW BY 14-15Z. KUES IS ALREADY THERE
WITH A 900 BKN AT 09Z.  BOTH CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER IN THE ADVANCING
SNOWFALL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO WIND DOWN.

BY 6 PM THE KMSN AREA SHOULD HAVE AROUND 3.5 TO 4 INCHES ON THE
GROUND WITH THE PEAK OF THE SNOW OCCURRING AROUND 18-20Z. ANOTHER
INCH SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.  AT KMKE...ABOUT 2 INCHES SHOULD
BE REALIZED BY 00Z THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.  THE PEAK OF THE SNOW IN MILWAUKEE WILL CLOSER TO 23-00Z.

LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE EVENT.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST WAVES
TOWARD OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-
     057-062-063-067>069.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST
     FRIDAY FOR WIZ051-052-058>060-064>066-070>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>