Alert archive / Wisconsin / Special Marine Warnings in 2012

Special Marine Warning 33, NWS Milwaukee, WI

July 18, 2012

NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this special marine warning at Jul 18, 2012, 7:22 PM CDT. It was in force for 113 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2012, 7:22 PM CDT (00:22 UTC)
Expired: Jul 18, 2012, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 113 min
Issued by: NWS Milwaukee, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special marine warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special marine warning went out at Jul 18, 2:56 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 2:56 PM CDT, 4 hours 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SE MN INTO NRN IL. SURFACE LOW
PROGGD TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF WI ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SWING A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT
SHORTWAVES ACROSS SRN WI AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. BEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS TO THE NORTH WHICH IS DRIVING CONVECTION ACROSS
NRN WI. KEYING ON THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA. THIS
IS PROGGD TO CONGEAL AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WI...ESP SC WI
RIDING THE INSTABILITY/CAPE GRADIENT. DOWNDRAFT CAPES ARE
1000-1200 J/KG IN THE SW CWA THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. EXPECTING PRIMARY THREAT TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS. MESO MODELS...ESPECIALLY ARW...DRIVE A BOW ECHO
EAST RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER THE NE CWA IS NOT AS UNSTABLE
AND DEEPER INTO THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR...SO WIND POTENTIAL
TENDS TO DIMINISH THE FURTHER NE INTO THE CWA...THUS THE LAID OUT
ORIENTATION OF THE SVR TSRA WATCH. ANOTHER MESO MODEL TRIES TO
BRING THIS AREA INTO SC WI THEN WEAKENS IT WITH SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT DIVING SE THROUGH IA. THIS LATTER SCENARIO HARD TO SEE
AT THIS POINT. WARM ADVECTION SIGNAL...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND 850
TROUGH AXIS STILL HANGING BACK TO THE WEST SUGGESTS KEEPING TSRA
CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW INITIAL
COMPLEX AFFECTS LATER TRENDS.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE/850 LOWS SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
EARLY TRANSITIONS TO COOL ADVECTION. PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST
DURING THE MORNING. DEBATED ELIMINATING IT ALTOGETHER FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF SHORTWAVE...HUNG ONTO SOME SMALL
POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS THE GFS IS OVERDONE
QPF-WISE N THIS REGARD. DID SCALE BACK ON THE MORE ROBUST ALLBLEND
POPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM IOWA TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO ONTARIO CANADA
DURING THIS TIME...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND ONLY WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIPPLES DROPPING SOUTHEAST...WE WILL KEEP IT DRY DURING THIS TIME
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE NAM AND GFS DO DROP A LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BAND SOUTH
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...AND INTO
SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE ECMWF WEAKENS THIS BAND AND
KEEPS IT OVER NORTHERN WI ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY THE
GFS BRINGS PCPN/QPF INTO SOUTHERN WI. SO WILL HOLD TIGHT AND KEEP IT
DRY INTO SATURDAY..

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE FORECAST WATERS GET MUDDY SATURDAY NIGHT ON. GFS PRETTY MUCH HAS
CHANCES OF RAIN/QPF THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT ON SUNDAY
ONLY.  GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...MOISTURE BANDS AND RAIN/QPF AND SURFACE TROUGHS. EVENTUALLY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT GFS
IS FASTER ON THIS...AND BRINGS IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT ACROSS ON MONDAY...BUT DRY
ON MONDAY.  WILL HAVE TO GO WITH CHANCES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD...SORT OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...CONCERN SQUARELY CENTERED ON STRONG/SVR
THUNDERSTORMS AS COMPLEX EXPECTED CONGEAL ACROSS SE MN/NE IA AND ROLL
ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SW OF
KUES. CEILINGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS BUT THESE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KAPELA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 4:15 PM CDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:12 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:38 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:42 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:46 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 18, 7:00 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 18, 7:12 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 7:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MKX	Dodge, Jefferson, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Washington and 1 more	56 min
Jul 18, 11:43 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MKX	Dane	3 hr
Jul 19, 6:16 PM CDT	Small Craft Advisory	MKX		21 hr

Nearby

Special Marine Warnings in Wisconsin, 2012 Every special marine warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.