Special Marine Warning 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
226 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

.TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WATER VAPOR/RUC COMBO SHOWS STRONG VORTICITY ENTER IN ERN
NEBRASKA. STRONG 200-300 MILLIBAR 120-140 KNOT SOUTHWEST JET
STREAM OUT AHEAD THIS FEATURE AIMING INTO NRN WI. POTENT 50-60
KNOT 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP AND TRANSLATING ACROSS
STATE. SURFACE LOW PROGGD TO NRN WI BY 12Z MONDAY WITH SURFACE/850
COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS...BOTH MESO AND
SYNOPTIC SUGGESTING THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO...ONE BATCH OF VIGOROUS
CONVECTION FIRES IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS IOWA AND SRN
MINNESOTA AND THIS RACES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WI AND
POTENTIALLY CLIPS OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA. WEAKER CONVECTION TO
OUR SOUTH CONSOLIDATES A BIT AND DEVELOPS FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
SRN WI BEFORE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS EVENING. BETTER SPC
TOR PARAMETERS ARE FOCUSED IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA AND POINTS
NORTH...MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MODERATE RISK AREA THAT JUST CLIPS
OUR NW CWA. STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SURFACE WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL OF HITTING CRITERIA. THUS FAR EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS
THWARTED THE BETTER MIXING AND HAS KEPT THE SUSTAINED/GUSTS
BEHAVED.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SECONDARY FRONT WITH MORE VIGOROUS COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES WITH SHARP
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS CROSSING DURING THE MORNING. WILL HAVE SHRA
CHANCES WITH THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE. A CHILLIER...BREEZY...CLOUDY
DAY WITH 925 TEMPS CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
COMPARED TO THE UPPER TEENS OF SUNDAY.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A RATHER COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SCOOTS OVERHEAD LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE
AND THE MODELS ARE KEEPING US DRY FOR NOW...SO WILL KEEP IT THAT
WAY. 925MB TEMPS DO COOL DOWN TO ABOUT -3C IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WE/LL SEE SOME CLEARING FOR A
TIME...SO FROST IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAST ZONAL
FLOW. THIS ONE HAS BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH IT. THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CONSENSUS FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WET...BUT THE THUNDER THREAT IS MINIMAL WITH LITTLE
CAPE AVAILABLE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

SOME LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW
EXITS TO THE EAST...THEN ABOUT AN 18 HOUR DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
BEFORE MORE RAIN POSSIBLY ARRIVES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE BUSY WAVE TRAIN ACROSS
THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE IS MORE MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT AS THE GFS HAS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MORE NORTHERN
ECMWF. TIMING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR. THIS LOW SHOULD BE EXITING
THURSDAY NIGHT OR POSSIBLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE COMPLICATED AND FAST FLOW THIS WEEK...WE/LL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THAT UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS INTO THE
EVENING...WITH THE NORTHWEST CWA VULNERABLE TO BEING CLIPPED BY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS ERN IA/SRN MN. OTHER SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY RACE NORTHEAST FROM MO AND IL AND CLIP SE WI THIS
EVENING. ONGOING PRECIP TO THE SOUTH NOT SHOWING MUCH ORGANIZATION
BUT AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES A BIT MORE...THIS CAN CHANGE. A
SOUTHERLY 50-60 KNOT LLJ WILL MAKE FOR WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS WITHIN ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ON MONDAY WITH
WRAPAROUND RH AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
FEATURES MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL JET
STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
306 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

WIZ065-066-071-072-152015-
KENOSHA-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-WAUKESHA-
306 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE MILWAUKEE METRO AREA...

AT 304 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HALES CORNERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  UW-MILWAUKEE CAMPUS BY 315 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MEB