Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LARGE PCPN SHIELD WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE WITH SCT
SHOWERS REMAINING. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM ERN NE INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI BY 18Z AND THEN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC THE
ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NWD THROUGH SRN WI THIS
AM AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SSW WHILE ALSO GETTING DRY SLOTTED
ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE BREAKUP OF
SOME THE STRATUS OR AT LEAST LIFT THE DECK. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.

THE FAR WRN CWA COULD GET CLIPPED BY SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW
LATER THIS AM. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER TROUGH LINE OR WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE BEST
CONVERGENCE AND SFC FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER NE IL INTO IN
AND LOWER MI. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL
EXIST. MLCAPES OF ONLY 100-200 J/KG EXPECTED OVER SE WI LATER TODAY
AND WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR
STORMS DESPITE THE STRONG WIND SHEAR. DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TO
SCT TSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SRN AND SE WI AS THE
THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO THE SOUTH SLOPES UPWARD TO THE NORTH
INTO SRN WI. SKIES TO THEN BEGIN CLEARING THIS EVENING DUE TO A DRY
WLY FLOW.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WEST
WINDS BACKING SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. MAY SEE A LAKE BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS. 925MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BRINGING 925MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
IF DEW POINTS CAN RISE WELL INTO THE 50S. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION...COULD SEE THIS OCCURRING...THOUGH MODELS STAYING
IN THE LOWER 50S BY 00Z THURSDAY.

THIS WOULD GET MEAN LAYER CAPES TO RISE WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH NO OTHER REAL TRIGGER MECHANISM.
THUS...WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD POPS IN
LATER FORECASTS.

NAM BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
GFS/CANADIAN DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND. CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...WITH
LINGERING MEAN LAYER CAPES PROBABLY UNDERDONE BY THE MODELS. MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR A WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH PERIODIC LAKE BREEZES KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS
COOLER.

COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...AND IS EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SUBTLE
VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL OVER SRN WI WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY SCT SHOWERS REMAINING FOR
THE MORNING. IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS AM WILL TRANSITION TO AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS BY MID TO LATE AM AS THE AREA GETS DRY SLOTTED AND DAYTIME
HEATING LIFTS THE CIGS. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FOR TODAY. SCT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SCT TSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM FAR SRN WI
INTO SE WI WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS AREA OF RAIN WOULD AFFECT
THE SE WI TAF SITES. DRY WLY WINDS WOULD THEN BRING VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TODAY UNTIL
7 PM. THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH THIS AM WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO
THE SSW. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL THEN BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-131000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
940 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ILLINOIS AND LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER A VERY WARM
WEATHER PATTERN WITH FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LMZ643>646-131000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
940 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1-7PM TODAY FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3PM FROM NORTH POINT
LIGHTHOUSE TO SHEBOYGAN.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN ILLINOIS AND LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS UNDER A VERY WARM
WEATHER PATTERN WITH FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACTING WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
DAVIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1127 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

WIZ066-070>072-121700-
KENOSHA-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-WALWORTH-
1127 AM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST RACINE COUNTY...

AT 1122 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNION GROVE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...PENNY SIZE HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EAGLE LAKE BY 1135 AM CDT...
  UNION GROVE BY 1140 AM CDT...
  FRANKLIN BY 1155 AM CDT...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MRC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1216 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

WIZ071-072-121745-
KENOSHA-RACINE-
1216 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO EASTERN KENOSHA COUNTY...

AT 1212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLEASANT
PRAIRIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PLEASANT PRAIRIE BY 1220 PM CDT...
  DOWNTOWN KENOSHA AND KENOSHA AIRPORT BY 1225 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

MRC