Small Craft Advisory 6, NWS Milwaukee, WI

450 
WHUS73 KMKX 170244
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
844 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

...BRISK NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATER TONIGHT...WITH
BLUSTERY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LMZ643-644-171045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.120117T0800Z-120118T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
844 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT... 
  BACKING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS 
  TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD OPEN WATERS. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY DAYBREAK...THEN TO 7 TO 10 
  FEET TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ645-646-171045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.120117T1000Z-120118T1200Z/
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
844 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT... 
  BACKING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS 
  TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD OPEN WATERS. 

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY DAYBREAK...THEN TO 7 TO 10 
  FEET TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

029 
WHUS73 KMKX 170928
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.BRISK AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BECOMING LARGE. A FEW
GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY TOWARD OPEN WATERS. THE
BRISK WINDS ARE DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS FROM
ILLINOIS NORTHEAST TOWARD DETROIT AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

LMZ643-644-171730-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
328 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS... BACKING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 KNOTS
  BY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ645-646-171730-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.120117T1000Z-120118T1200Z/
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
328 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS...BACKING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 KNOTS
  BY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

* WAVES: 3 TO 5 FEET BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FEET TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
GEHRING

784 
WHUS73 KMKX 171541
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TOWARD DETROIT AND SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BRING BRISK AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS...TURNING NORTHWEST BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BECOME LARGE. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

LMZ643-644-172345-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
941 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTH TO 30 KNOTS...BACKING NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
  A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN
  WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY
  SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ645-646-172345-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
941 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTH TO 30 KNOTS...BACKING NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
  A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN
  WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT.

* WAVES: BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY
  SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

638 
WHUS73 KMKX 172146
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY...THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LARGE INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
LATE TONIGHT.

LMZ643-644-180600-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
346 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES MAY
  BE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

* WAVES: 5 TO 8 FEET EARLY THIS EVENING...SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3 TO
  4 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ645-646-180600-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
346 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES MAY
  BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY
  SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

* WAVES: 6 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS EVENING...SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3
  TO 4 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
WOOD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

653 
WHUS73 KMKX 180231
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
831 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SSTRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LARGE INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

LMZ643-644-181045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
831 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
  LATER TONIGHT.

* WAVES: 4 TO 7 FEET...SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY LATE
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ645-646-181045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
831 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER
  TONIGHT.

* WAVES: 5 TO 8 FEET...SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY LATE
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

276 
WHUS73 KMKX 180939
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012

...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.BRISK WINDS AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BRISK AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
WESTERLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH WAVES WILL ALSO BE GENERATED ESPECIALLY TOWARD OPEN
WATER. 

LMZ643>646-181745-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-120118T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.GL.W.0002.120118T2000Z-120119T1800Z/
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
339 AM CST WED JAN 18 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A
GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST THURSDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
  TONIGHT BECOMING WEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO
  35 KNOTS. 

* WAVES: 1 TO 3 FEET BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT BUT MUCH
  HIGHER TOWARD OPEN WATER. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GEHRING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEEMS THAT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT
SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR A TIME AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING
AT THE SFC BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF
ICE CRYSTALS FOR A WHILE...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIP IN THE LIQUID
FORM. LATER TONIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK...SATURATION BECOMES DEEP
ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...COMING TO AN END WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY BY THE TIME THE SNOW
WINDS DOWN...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE IT THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN MUCH
EARLIER. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH...THE HIGHEST GUSTS TOWARD THE LAKE. MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT SETUP SIMILAR TO THE LAST STORM...WITH LESS
SNOW. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM BLOWING AND
DRIFTING.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW DROPS 925MB TEMPS TO -14C TO
-15C IN THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND TO -12C TO -13C SOUTHEAST BY 06Z WED.
A MODERATE NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FRESH
SNOW COVER AS CLOUDS CLEAR WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING AND WINDS
DIMINISH AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER REGION. WITH THE GIVEN
925MB TEMPERATURES...LOWS AT OR BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE
FAR EAST WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. COULD GET COLDER IF CLOUDS
CLEAR/WINDS DECOUPLE SOONER.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CLIPPER
APPROACHES.  NAM AND GFS 275K AND 280K SURFACES SHOWING 3-5 UBAR/SEC
ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA WITH 10-20 MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS
CROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF WAVE...WITH STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WITH
AVERAGE MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG BRINGING MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE LATER PORTION
OF THE EVENING COMMUTE IN WESTERN HALF OF CWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND CLIPPER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
925MB AND 850 MB THERMAL TROUGHS OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z FRI ON
GFS/ECMWF. 925MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -20C TO -22C BY THURSDAY
MORNING ON ALL MODELS. NAM WARMEST GUIDANCE AS IT MODIFIES AND
SHIFTS THE COLDEST AIR TO THE EAST MORE QUICKLY THAN OTHER
MODELS...WITH 16/12Z ECMWF 2-METER TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE
16/00Z RUN...BUT STILL WARMER THAN COLDEST GFS. LOWERED BLENDED
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES... BUT FEAR THEY COULD GO LOWER.

TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND LOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING MIXING UP
TO 900 MB LEADING TO INCREASING AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST...AND MID-OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE EAST.
SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KT SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. WITH CURRENT LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST TEMPS
LEADING TO LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL
TO -10F TO -18F OVER THE CWA BY 12Z AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. IF FORECAST BRINGS LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN WHILE KEEPING THE
GUSTY WINDS...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SOME MID CLOUDS WITH WARM ADVECTION REACHING FAR SW WI ON NAM BY 00Z
FRI...GFS AND ECMWF DRY AND STILL COLD ADVECTING...SO AGAIN WENT
COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE NW TO THE LOW
TEENS SE...WITH BLUSTERY WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY AS HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD THEN NEXT CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON NORTH/SOUTH COMPONENT
OF SURFACE LOW TRACK AND MOISTURE. BLENDED SOLUTION GIVES MIDDLE TO
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. QUIET SATURDAY
WITH A FASTER MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW. ECMWF AND GEMNH STILL SHOW
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH...BUT LESS AMPLIFIED...THEREFORE NOT AS
STRONG A WARM-UP AS PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT ON LEADING EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS
NOW ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY...AND MID 30S TO
40 MONDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREA OF
STRATUS TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND PUSH NORTH INTO THE
STATE THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR THROUGH THE EVENING.
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY COME DOWN A BIT TOO. WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF MADISON TO SHEBOYGAN LINE. PRECIP WILL THEN
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TRICKY PRECIP TYPES TONIGHT...AS COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEEMS THAT ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT
SOME FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR A TIME AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING
AT THE SFC. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS FOR A
WHILE...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIP IN THE LIQUID FORM. LATER TONIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK...SATURATION BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH FOR A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. STILL EXPECTING AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATER TONIGHT...WITH
BLUSTERY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD OPEN WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS THUS BEING ISSUED FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643-644.

&&

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...99
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1219 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-171015-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1219 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THAT DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CHANGE ANY
LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER TO LIGHT SNOW EARLY TUESDAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR A
TIME ON TUESDAY...DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...BLUSTERY NORTH
WINDS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED HOWEVER SNOWFALL AND ICING
REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED.

LMZ643>646-171000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
1219 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE AREA.

THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE SOUTH
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH WAVES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FETCH.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK/DDV