Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE MOVING TO NEAR THE COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING POSITIONED OFF THE SE COAST
AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DESCENT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AFTER A LULL IN PCPN
AROUND MID DAY...WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS RE-
DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS SE NC LIFTING NE
INTO ERN NC. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WITH MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND
HAVEN'T SEEN STRONG STORMS DEVELOP YET BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT ISOLATED STORMS APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA THROUGH AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
WITH PW'S AROUND 2.25" THROUGH TONIGHT...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL THREAT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
AND ASSOC JET INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHIFTING
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EWD AND EXPECT HIGHER POPS TO SHIFT TO
ALONG THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR WED WITH
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND HIGHEST PW'S WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AGAIN TOMORROW BUT INLAND AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WITH LIMITED SHEAR THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY PCPN WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH WED. CLOUDS AND PCPN
EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE COAST WED NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR THUR...IT APPEARS A DRIER DAY IS ON TAP WITH
A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAIN...AS AREA WILL BE UNDER
BROAD SW FLOW... THOUGH MAJOR FORCING MECHANISM WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. MED/LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THUR NIGHT...TRANSLATING
EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS INTO E NC FRI
AND SAT. BEST CHANCES ATTM APPEAR TO BE ON SAT...AS E NC WILL BE
UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK...TRANSLATING TO STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL FGEN ONCE AGAIN. COULD BE A SEVERE
TSTORM THREAT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...AND PROVIDED
INSTABILITY IS DECENT.

RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY GET HUNG UP
ACROSS E NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/SHORT TERM/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS RTES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED INVOF ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT
AND WED...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD PLACING BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST. GENERALLY EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SWLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

/LONG TERM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER DAY ON THUR ON TAP...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ALL AREAS. WILL SEE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY FRI AND SAT...WITH MORE TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
/SHORT TERM/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE SE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SWLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS
AROUND 2-3 FT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS...UP TO
20 KT...POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP
TO 4 FT. GRADIENTS RELAX WED WITH WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 5-10 KT
WITH SEAS CONTINUING AROUND 2-4 FT IN A PREDOMINANTLY SELY SWELL
AROUND 9 SECONDS.

/LONG TERM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM...
WITH WINDS 15 TO OCNL 20 KT THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD TOWARDS 6 FEET...REACHING 6 FEET SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY...AS
WINDS REACH 20 TO 25 KT FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS GRADIENT IS
PINCHED WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRES. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
403 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-080815-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
403 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

NCZ046-047-081-072100-
MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-TYRRELL-
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND DARE...MAINLAND
HYDE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KILL DEVIL HILLS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... RURAL NORTHEASTERN
MAINLAND HYDE COUNTY...RURAL SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND DARE COUNTY.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 7574 3559 7586 3561 7588 3558 7588
      3553 7616 3570 7623 3578 7605 3573 7603
      3571 7605 3569 7603 3565 7603 3576 7599
      3580 7600 3587 7583 3570 7576 3569 7577
      3567 7574 3566 7576 3563 7572
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 250DEG 8KT 3565 7609

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