Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM OFFSHORE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THU...CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SHRT WV AND SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD E AND SE ON OUTFLOWS. CONTINUED SCT/CHC POPS FOR
INLAND SECTIONS...AND ADDED ISOLATED/SLGT CHC POPS UNTIL 2 AM AS
ISOLATED THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH SHRT WV MOVING INTO AREA. EXPECT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...LOWER
70S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THU...MODELS AGREE ON SHRT WV STALL OVER AREA AND
SHEARING OUT ON FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME
SFC PATTERN. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATING LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THAN TODAY...AND KEPT POPS AT 20% FOR FAVORED AREAS ALONG AND NW OF
SEA BREEZE ZONE. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOWER 90S INLAND AND
UPR 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR FORECAST
REASONING THROUGH THE LONG TERM. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
ZONAL FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ALOFT FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BERMUDA HIGH ALSO STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE
ALLOWING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
EXPECT ISOL TO SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INLAND AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
WILL PERSIST AT 1415-1420 METERS...YIELDING TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO 80S ALONG THE COAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
PWATS AGAIN BUILDING ABOVE 2 INCHES. 00Z AUG 2ND OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST W OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TUE AND
WED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND STALLED SFC FRONT CONTINUING ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1415 METERS MON THROUGH
WED HOWEVER GREATER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MAY MODERATE TEMPS FROM
REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THU...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC CURRENTLY WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE EVIDENT ALONG THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. THIS HAS BEEN THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AND WILL LIKELY ONLY IMPACT THE
WESTERN MOST TAF LOCATIONS (KPGV/KISO). SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
MOST...IF NOT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
PASS OVER THE TAF LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A DROP IN CIGS/VSBYS
BELOW VFR CRITERIA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH ONLY RESIDUAL CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE...LIGHT
WINDS...FEEL FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL SCATTER OUT IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SCU DEVELOPING BY
MID DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM THU...PREDOMINANT VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PERSIST FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RETURN OF
TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF S-SW WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE AFTN
INTO EVENING...DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN FRI AFTN. SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KT.

WW3 CONTINUES TO INITIALIZE ABOUT 1 FOOT TOO HIGH WITH SEAS OVER
OUTER PORTIONS...AND LEANED TO PREVIOUS FCST AND SWAN DURING PERIOD
FOR HEIGHTS MAINLY 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM WED...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BRINGING SLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL RANGE
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

GRADIENTS BEGIN TO TIGHTEN LATE SUN AND MON AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
15-20 KT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS
BUILD ACCORDINGLY TO AROUND 3-5 FT SUN NIGHT TROUGH MON. SWAN AND
WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...JBM/DAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
504 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ095-103-104-030915-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
504 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-030915-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
504 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
207 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             1 NW HERRINGS CROSSROAD 35.52N  77.71W
08/02/2012  E0.88 INCH       GREENE             NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A MIX OF DIME AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE FIRE
            DEP ALONG FIRE TOWN RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200417

PAGANO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
226 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             WOOTENS CROSSROADS      35.53N  77.70W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED A MIX OF NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL
            ALONG HWY91

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200418

PAGANO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
227 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ029-044-080-021930-
BEAUFORT-MARTIN-PITT-
227 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS BEAUFORT...PITT AND MARTIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 226 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES
SOUTH OF ROBERSONVILLE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WILLIAMSTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE EVERETTS...BEARGRASS
...ROBERSONVILLE...GRIMESLAND...SIMPSON...EVERETTS...AND WILLIAMSTON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 7719 3594 7713 3593 7711 3595 7704
      3593 7702 3586 7704 3587 7698 3552 7691
      3548 7732 3583 7740 3583 7735 3591 7735
      3596 7739 3599 7719
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 253DEG 8KT 3575 7723

DAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
304 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ091>093-021945-
CRAVEN-JONES-LENOIR-
304 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS CRAVEN...JONES AND LENOIR
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 304 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
WEST OF DOVER...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH OF KINSTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DOVER.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7745 3509 7714 3493 7732 3494 7733
      3493 7736 3491 7737 3493 7741 3497 7750
      3498 7757 3510 7773
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 307DEG 12KT 3517 7755

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
309 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             1 SSW WOODINGTON        35.16N  77.64W
08/02/2012  E0.25 INCH       LENOIR             NC   SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL MIXED WITH HEAVY RAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200419

PAGANO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ029-044-045-080-093-022000-
BEAUFORT-CRAVEN-MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-
322 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CRAVEN...BEAUFORT...
WASHINGTON...PITT AND MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 322 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JAMESVILLE TO WASHINGTON
PARK TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VANCEBORO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 6 MILES EAST OF WILLIAMSTON TO WASHINGTON TO 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF NEW BERN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...VANCEBORO......RIVER
ROAD...JAMESVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 7660 3549 7671 3542 7678 3548 7699
      3544 7696 3546 7692 3543 7684 3540 7681
      3510 7713 3528 7737 3553 7706 3588 7699
      3590 7692 3581 7688 3585 7684 3589 7683
      3587 7676 3593 7670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 280DEG 6KT 3587 7695 3554 7701
          3526 7724