Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
643 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA IN AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE. ACTIVITY BEING DRIVEN BY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH COUPLED
WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. FEEL SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS. THINK ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER ABOUT
01Z OR 02Z. ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OUTSIDE RAIN AREAS. AGAIN...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE FOG OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...OVERALL EXPECT A DAY FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SAT WITH
LINGERING BOUNDARIES ACROSS EASTERN NC...AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THE EAST COAST. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS AGAIN EXPECTED WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD AS UPPER
TROF PERSISTS OVER ERN US. TIMING OF REINFORCING SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE CRITICAL FOR TIMING OF PRECIP BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THAT REGARD. FOR NOW
WILL FCST HIGH CHANCE POPS (THRU TUESDAY) TO COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CYCLE...SCALING DOWN TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE DURING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL LY UNFAVORABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TIME FRAMES.
HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA COULD OCCUR
ALMOST ANY TIME A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND CROSSES REGION. ANY
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY...WITH INTERACTIONS
ALONG LINGERING INLAND THERMAL...OUTFLOW AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
LEADING TO A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ON ANY GIVEN DAY. FOR LATE WEEK WILL LEAVE POPS AT SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE FCST.

WITH DECREASED THICKNESS/THERMAL TROF...HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH DEWPTS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S...HIGHEST BEACHES WHERE WATER
TEMPS NOW IN LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SAT...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE KOAJ AND
KEWN TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS LIKELY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...ESPECIALLY AT KOAJ AND KEWN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SOME
BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. COULD ALSO HAVE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORN FOG AND STRATUS WITH SATURATED LOW LVLS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SAT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT GENERALLY 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
THESE GUSTS MAY BE ENHANCED BY CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4
FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER NUMBERS IN CONVECTION. STATUS QUO
EXPECTED SUN WITH SW 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT.

LONG TERM/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND TROUGH WILL LEAD TO SW WINDS
AVERAGING 10 TO 20 KTS THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. HIGHEST SPEEDS
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND MAINLY DURING THE MORE FAVORABLE LATE
AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAMES. SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH 5 FT FAR OUTER
CNTRL/SRN WATERS AT TIMES...OTHERWISE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/BTC/CQD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-292015-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105.

SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-103-104-292015-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL BEACHES...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT SUNDAY FROM CAPE HATTERAS
SOUTH...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105.

SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-292015-
ONSLOW-
405 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105.

SCATTERED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
605 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

NCZ080-093-094-282300-
BEAUFORT-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
605 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PAMLICO...CRAVEN AND
BEAUFORT COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 604 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SILVER HILL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF JAMES CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NEW BERN...
BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...AURORA...MESIC...SOUTH CREEK...HOBUCKEN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE AT RISK. TAKE SHELTER
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER IN A BUILDING A
VEHICLE PROVIDES SAFETY FROM LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 7711 3510 7723 3539 7679 3528 7646
      3522 7650 3523 7654 3521 7651 3518 7653
      3520 7659 3517 7662 3515 7653 3510 7656
      3497 7677 3507 7700 3499 7696 3494 7683
      3486 7710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 234DEG 16KT 3519 7679

26

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