Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PRODUCE
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY NORTHERN DUPLIN COUNTY EASTWARD TO PAMLICO COUNTY THROUGH
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY. THIS IS COLLOCATED IN AXIS OF RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS
AND LAPS DATA. 100 MB ML CAPE HAS INC TO AOA 2500 J/KG EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THREAT FOR A COUPLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING SHOULD STORMS TRAIN
ALONG EAST-WEST BOUNDARY. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONE THIRD OF FA...JUST NORTH OF CRYSTAL COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH CENTRAL NC BOUNDARY. HAVE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

CONVECTION WILL WANE BY MID EVENING WITH LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION.
WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BREAK OUT...AND POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE IN
SOME PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IN
FAST UPPER FLOW...COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. DEEP SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AS COMPARED TO TODAY. RAISED POPS TO
THE HIGH CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN
THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CENTRAL US HEAT RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY INLAND.
THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO FORECAST WITH
DETAIL THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WHICH WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO THAT ANY MID LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NC AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK SE INTO NC TYPICALLY AT NIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED POPS EACH
EVENING THROUGH 06Z TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER LATE AT NIGHT BUT TRYING TO TIME THESE FEATURES IS
FUTILE FAR OUT IN TIME.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NC LATE TUESDAY
WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AS THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE HOT WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE DRY
AND A LITTLE COOLER WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT BUT ALL THE
MOS GUIDANCE STILL WERE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 90S ONLY AROUND 3
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE 90S INLAND AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO BE >/= 20C. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE
ADVISORY CRITERIA THRESHOLD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NC AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEXT WEEKEND
PERHAPS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND INTENSITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
A BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER OF THE
CWA...RIDING NORTH OF HWY-64. THIS HAS LEAD TO SOME STRATUS
FORMATION THIS MORNING THAT HAS HAD A HARD TIME
DISSIPATING...ESPECIALLY AT SITE KPGV. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTION STARTING TO
FIRE...CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH YIELDING SWLY FLOW ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOIST FLOW AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THEREFORE WILL
HAVE PREDOMINATE VFR (WITH EXCEPTION OF KPGV) WITH A PERIOD OF RA
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH THESE STORMS VSBYS AND CIGS CAN BE LOWERED TO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPPER OFF BY
LATER IN THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT FOG/STRATUS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING...WILL ONLY HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL FOR NOW. IF CLEARING
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT THEN THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH SCU DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING STRATUS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING TIME HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY....PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG OR
STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUN...EXPECT SW WINDS MAINLY 10-15KT AND SEAS 3 TO 4
FEET REST OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONTINUED MODERATE SW FLOW WITH
A FEW 5 FOOTERS CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS. SLIGHT DECREASE
EXPECTED IN WINDS/SEAS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
A BIT ALONG THE COAST. THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND ON
MON AFTERNOON...IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING IN FROM THE NW.
THIS WILL INC GRADIENT TO NEARLY 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT MONDAY TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODERATE SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO
5-7 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...JME/TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

NCZ103-104-231530-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN TODAY. MINOR
FLOODING MAY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-231530-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN TODAY. MINOR
FLOODING MAY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-231530-
CARTERET-
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN TODAY. MINOR
FLOODING MAY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-231530-
ONSLOW-
1116 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AGAIN TODAY. MINOR
FLOODING MAY RESULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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