Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THEN STALL
NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM...SFC FRONT AND UPR LVL TROF APPROACHING THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. BOTH MET AMD MAV MOS GUID HAS LIKE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EXCEPT CHC FOR CSTL MARINE AREA. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLD COVER WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S WELL INLAND TO
THE UPPER 70S COASTAL SECTIONS. WITH HIGH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLD SVR TSRA SPLY THRU
EARLY EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM...THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER ON SAT WITH
CONTD GOOD CHC TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL CONT ACROSS ERN NC WITH A
MODERATE SW FLOW KEEPING PWATS SLIGHTLY OVER 2 INCHES. AN UPPER
UPR TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LVL
SUPPORT WITH UPR LVL DVRG AND WEAK H5 IMPL ENHANCING CONVECTION.
STRONG TSRA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURG THE AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVE
HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LTL COOLER ON SAT WITH PLENTY OF CLD
COVER AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS NRN PORTIONS
AND CHANCE S SAT EVENING AS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WEAKENS LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINS WITH PW'S BTWN 1.75-2" AND
INSTABILITY WITH LI'S AROUND -4 TO -5C LATE SAT NIGHT INCREASING
TO -6 TO -8C THROUGH PEAK HEATING SUN TO CONTINUE AT LEAST CHANCE
POP.

HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC BUILDS INTO THE SERN STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MIGRATES EWD IN RESPONSE TO A AN
UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW WHICH WILL BRING NWLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EXPECTED MON AND TUE WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR ADDITIONAL DYNAMICS TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AND WILL GENERALLY KEEP HIGHS POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
NOW.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW EARLY WED. LATEST
MODELS PUSHING THE FRONT TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE
CRYSTAL COAST BY MID DAY WED...ALTHOUGH I FORESEE MODELS VARYING
THIS LOCATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
POPS WED AND THU AND SLIGHT CHANCE FRI FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AM DISCOUNTING THE GFS LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT DEVELOPS
AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE NC/SC
PIEDMONT THU INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM...MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCT TO
NMRS CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME AFTER
00Z SAT BUT CONVECTION WILL LINGER THRU THE LATE EVE. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWERED
CIGS/VSBYS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI....A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE VA/NC
BORDER SAT NIGHT AND SUN BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE AREA WED WHICH MAY ADD ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTHERN/CNTRAL COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH A
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW THRU SAT AND SEAS 6-8 FT.
WINDS SHUD DMNSH BELOW SCA LVLS ACRS THE PAMLICO SOUND BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE PRES GRAD
LESSENS SOME.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...A FRONT STALLED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER SAT
NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE SUN. WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT SAT EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 KT SUN/SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL
START OUT AROUND 2-4 FT N OF OREGON INLET AND 4-7 FT S WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2-5 FT THROUGHOUT BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY MON. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND TUE BTWN
TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH OFFSHORE. SW WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE 15-25 KT AND 4-7FT...MAINLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS WED AND STALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE LOOKOUT BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND LOWER SEAS...HOWEVER THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BETWEEN
NOW AND WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-212015-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
406 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-212015-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
406 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
448 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND OREGON INLET            35.80N  75.54W
07/20/2012  M39 MPH          DARE               NC   WEATHER FLOW

            MEASURED BY WEATHERFLOW STATION AT OREGON INLET

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200316

MCKAUGHAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
501 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

NCZ080-081-090>095-098-202200-
BEAUFORT-CARTERET-CRAVEN-DUPLIN-JONES-LENOIR-MAINLAND
HYDE-ONSLOW-PAMLICO-
501 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PAMLICO...CRAVEN...DUPLIN...
ONSLOW...JONES...BEAUFORT...CARTERET...MAINLAND HYDE AND LENOIR
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GERMANTOWN TO BEULAVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PRESCOTT...CYPRESS
CREEK...RHEMS...CATHERINE LAKE...RICHLANDS...NEW BERN...SILVER
HILL...HOBUCKEN...TRENTON...AND POLLOCKSVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. MANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IF
YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS TAKE COVER IN A VEHICLE.

BOATERS ON THE OPEN WATER AND THOSE CAMPING OUTDOORS ARE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR. THOSE CAMPING SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR
VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 7816 3553 7663 3535 7669 3538 7650
      3549 7657 3549 7656 3541 7642 3532 7654
      3536 7633 3529 7649 3532 7625 3518 7661
      3504 7643 3507 7700 3493 7679 3467 7766
      3474 7821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 275DEG 31KT 3543 7647 3490 7778

DAG

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