Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
333 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SCT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER
NRN SECTIONS SO FAR THIS AFTN...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHC/SCT 30-40 POPS OVER NW HALF OF AREA
WITH 20 POP REST OF AREA EXCEPT SEA BREEZED ZONE FROM SRN OBX DOWN
TO CRYSTAL COAST BEACHES. LIGHT-MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
UP AGAIN SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...LOW-MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR TUE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF SFC PATTERN...WHILE WEAK SHRT WV
ENERGY GETS SHEARED OUT. THUS EXPECTING TYPICAL MID SUMMER SEA
BREEZE DAY WITH 20-30 POPS GRADUALLY SPREADING INLAND WITH SEA
BREEZE DURING AFTN. SLIGHT UPR RIDGING AND LOW LVL THICKNESS
INCREASES DO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS HOTTER INLAND...LOW-MID
90S WITH NEAR 90 COAST. HEAT INDICES JUST INLAND OF COAST MAY REACH
100-103.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK. DIFFERENCES SHOW UP THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER IN THE
HANDLING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT IS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF HANGS UP THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BOTH MODELS DISSIPATE THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREFER THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET A FRONT SOUTH OF HERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE
HIGH OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE TROF INLAND. MAINLY
SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY WEST-EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM MONDAY...SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR KPGV WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO WEST FROM KFAY TO KCLT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION
ALL TAF SITES AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. VFR
PREVAILING DURING PERIOD OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY. ANY SITES THAT
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WILL BE PRONE TO
PERIOD OF IFR FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT TOO UNCERTAIN
TO INCLUDE IN FCST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
SATURDAY...GRADUALLY WASHING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE A BIT SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
WASHES OUT. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN BACK TO A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROF SFC
PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...THUS PERSISTENCE FCST FOR SW
WINDS 10-15 KT. HIGHER END OF SPEEDS MAINLY FOR NRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN TUE AFTN. WW3 AND SWAN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS REMAINING 2-4 FT...WITH SOME HEIGHTS TO 5 FT
OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...LATEST RUN OF THE MAJOR MODELS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE WEEK. STILL PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF HANDLING
OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WHICH HANGS UP THE FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH WHICH IS HARD TO DO THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. STILL LOOKING AT
SMALL CRAFT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-172030-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
418 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY STRONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-172030-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
418 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY STRONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
702 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VANCEBORO               35.30N  77.16W
07/16/2012                   CRAVEN             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200312

BC

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