Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
652 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY...THEN DISSIPATE. THE FRONT WILL STALL WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...COMBINATION OF DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING WITH SOME DECENT VORTICITY...A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
INLAND AND A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS LED TO SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS OVER MUCH OF RALEIGH'S FORECAST AREA. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CLIPPING OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF
MARTIN AND PITT. THINK THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE WHERE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL LIE AS SURFACE BASED CAPE IS
AROUND 2500 J/KG AND BEST MOISTURE AXIS IS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THINK THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL WANE
AFTER 03Z...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER THRU
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND NO CHANGE TO THE CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH DEWPOINTS SUPPORT MIN TEMPS NOT GETTING MUCH BELOW 70 DEGREES
AREA-WIDE OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.

THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN HAVELOCK AND NEW BERN AND EXTENDING INTO
PAMLICO COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN LOCATION FOR REDUCED
VSBYS IN SMOKE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SMOKE PLUME MIGRATES ENE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES. THE AQA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT WITH A CODE RED FOR CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES WITH
CODE ORANGE FOR CARTERET...JONES AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SAT THEN GRADUALLY
WASHOUT LATER IN THE DAY. AXIS OF PRECIP WTR NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION SAT AND WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE SHLD HAVE
SCT CONVECTION AS GOOD INSTAB DEVELOPS. COVERAGE SHUD BE HIGHER
(WITH GOOD CHC POPS) ACRS NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS WHERE BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESIDES WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN AND
SE COASTAL AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE A RESULT OF ADDED
CLOUD COVER AND SCTD PCPN COVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 85
TO 90 DEG RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES SAT NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY WASHOUT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
MOISTURE DIMINISHES SUN AND FORCING ALOFT WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNDER
NW FLOW WITH SRT WAVE ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NW. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
POPS ALL AREAS SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUN WILL RANGE NEAR
1410-1415 METERS YIELDING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND
WITH MID TO UPR 80S CST.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST WITH
REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE GULF WHICH COULD TRACK
ACROSS FL AND OFF THE SE COAST...ACCORDING TO 21ST/22ND 12Z GFS...OR
TOWARDS TEXAS ACCORDING TO THE 21ST/22ND 12Z ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARDS A MODEL BLEND FOR WINDS/TEMPS/POP BUT HEDGED TOWARDS
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST ECMWF/HPC.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTH OUT OF QUEBEC
TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES MON INTO TUES...RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. TUES THROUGH WED
WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE AS LARGE UPPER LOW
NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DOWN TO 1380-1390
METER RANGE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...LOW TO MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

12Z GFS REMAINS DRY THROUGH THURS WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATED A
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING FROM NW TO SE WITH GREATER CHANCES OF
PRECIP. KEPT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURS/FRI WITH TEMPS WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...WHILE LATEST 18Z ROUND OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG/HAZE AT KISO AND KOAJ...THIS
HAS NOT PANNED OUT WITH SIMILAR FORECASTS THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS AND WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SMOKE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EWN...HOWEVER WITH LOW LVLS RATHER MIXED SHLD BE NO
WORSE THAN MVFR. SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
MAY MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF KPGV/KISO AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAKES IT TO KEWN/KOAJ LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL
KEEP OUT MENTION OF VICINITY TSTMS FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRI...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOME PERIODS OF CONVECTION LIKELY AS
INDIVIDUAL SRT WAVES CROSS...THIS AGAIN WILL RESULT IN BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR IN REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
DRIER ATMOS IN PLACE TUES INTO WED AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH VFR EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND AND RETREATING
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF 10-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. SEAS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN 2-4 FT WITH POSSIBLY 5 FT FOR OUTER CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRI...WINDS GRAD DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY SUN BEFORE LIGHT S WINDS RETURN LATE SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY
2 TO 3 FEET SUN. WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
MON NIGHT WITH SEAS REACHING 5 FT OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. FRONT
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER
NORTHWEST/NORTH ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO
SPEEDS...AS THE GFS KEEPS WINDS ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUES
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF CAPS WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. HEDGED CLOSER TO
ECMWF FOR WINDS...THUS HAD TO TWEAK GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH III CLOSER
TO LOCAL SWAN OUTPUT...BUT CONTINUED TO KEEP SEAS MAINLY 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTC/SK
NEAR TERM...CTC/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC/SK
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...CTC/SK/DAG
MARINE...CTC/BTC/DAG