Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WILL MOVE WELL OFF OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST ON ALBERTO. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. SCT STRONG TO ISOLD
PULSE SVR STORMS DEVELOPING WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. DIME HAIL
REPORTED WITH VIL NEAR 50 IN DUPLIN COUNTY...SO 60 FOR 1 INCH
APPEARS ON TRACK.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...UPDATED TO DROP POPS UNTIL AFTER NOON WITH
SKY COVER ADJUSTED FOR LESS COVERAGE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. FOG AND
STRATUS BURNED OFF QUICKLY WITH HEATING...AND ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY
STUMPY PT TO NRN OBX AROUND 10 AM DISSIPATED QUICKLY. CU FIELD
STARTING TO DEVELOPE WITH MORE TYPICAL WARM SEASON SEA BREEZE
PATTERN...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THIS AFTN...AIDED BY SEA BREEZE BNDRY WORKING INLAND. ISOLD SVR
THREAT MAINLY FOR HAIL. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE VIL OF DAY 55-60
AND 50 DBZ CORE HEIGHTS 30500 FT FOR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTN. NO CHANGE
TO TEMPS WITH HIGHS MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...ATYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NC. WHILE SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -15C) WILL MOVE INTO
REGION. COMBINED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...PW VALUES AROUND 1.5"
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...SHOULD LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SOLID CHANCE POPS
ALL NIGHT. AMBIENT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED WITH RAIN COOLED AIR FROM THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY PRODUCING
SOME LOWER 60S TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY WED. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZE WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR SHOWER/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WED AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED AND THU...MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING. AT THIS TIME WED LOOKS
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND STRONGER
TSTMS...WITH UPPER LOW W/NW OF REGION. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN STRONGER STORMS. THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THU AS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
DIURNAL STORMS. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH OVERALL SHOULD WORK TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A REX BLOCK IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND UPPER
LOW MOVING WWD INTO FL WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND LOWS IN THE 60S. THICKNESSES INCREASE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS
ALOFT AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE M/U80S INLAND TO M/U70S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...SCT STRONG TO ISOLD PULSE SVR TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE NEAR KOAJ-KISO-KEWN
AREAS NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT
OUTSIDE OF IFR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN IN FOG AND STRATUS LATE. ANOTHER BOUT OF SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA AGAIN LATE WED MORNING INTO
AFTN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...SCT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
WED THROUGH THU AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE LOW
LIFTS N THU WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...LIKELY
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING. BUOY OBX CONTINUE TO SHOW 6 FT SEAS FOR NRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS...THUS NO CHANGE TO SCA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUE...LINGERING SWELL FROM ALBERTO AND SW WINDS
10-15KT WILL LIKELY KEEP 5FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WED...THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WED NIGHT INTO THU. S/SW FLOW AOB 15KT WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THU...BECOMING MORE SE/E THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
UPPER LOW MOVES NE. E/NE FLOW AOB 15KT WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT AND SEAS 2-4FT...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ095-103-104-231915-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS SHORE
BREAK NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ046-047-080-081-092>094-231915-
TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044-045-079-090-091-231915-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-231915-
ONSLOW-
305 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ046-047-081-221830-
MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-TYRRELL-
136 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND DARE...MAINLAND
HYDE COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TYRRELL COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM EDT...

AT 132 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GUM NECK...OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTH OF ENGELHARD...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...EAST LAKE...BUFFALO
CITY......CENTER OF DARE COUNTY BOMBING RANGE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7602 3576 7599 3581 7600 3581 7604
      3576 7605 3573 7603 3571 7605 3569 7603
      3565 7604 3560 7625 3582 7629 3593 7601
      3593 7595 3595 7594 3598 7586 3598 7584
      3574 7572
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 255DEG 14KT 3576 7609

ASM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ090>092-098-221845-
DUPLIN-JONES-LENOIR-ONSLOW-
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS DUPLIN...ONSLOW...JONES AND
LENOIR COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 144 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BEULAVILLE TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WALLACE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HALF MOON TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALLACE...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH. DIME-SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS NEAR ROSE
HILL AT 144 PM EDT.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...POTTERS HILL...
LYMAN......CHINQUAPIN...TAYLORS CORNER...PETERSBURG......RICHLANDS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 7779 3501 7735 3471 7768 3472 7768
      3471 7799 3473 7802 3472 7803 3472 7811
      3471 7813 3472 7816
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 267DEG 10KT 3493 7775 3467 7810

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
147 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             ROSE HILL               34.83N  78.03W
05/22/2012  E0.75 INCH       DUPLIN             NC   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY CALLER ON US-117

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200121

ASM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
204 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ098-221900-
ONSLOW-
204 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ONSLOW COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...

AT 203 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW RIVER AIR STATION TO 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF DIXON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW RIVER
AIR STATION TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMPSTEAD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NEW RIVER AIR
STATION...JACKSONVILLE...HAWS RUN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 7768 3485 7744 3469 7735 3449 7758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 157DEG 4KT 3470 7746 3448 7764

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW HALF MOON          34.85N  77.50W
05/22/2012                   ONSLOW             NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ALONG RHODESTOWN ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200122

MELENDEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ045-222030-
WASHINGTON-
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PLYMOUTH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WESTOVER...ROPER...
PLEASANT GROVE...CENTER OF PHELPS LAKE...SCUPPERNONG...CRESWELL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 7638 3593 7637 3591 7638 3586 7635
      3579 7640 3571 7640 3571 7683 3576 7682
      3577 7680 3585 7679 3588 7674 3591 7672
      3594 7665 3595 7652 3599 7640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 257DEG 11KT 3582 7667

$$ 9