Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
LATE WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PUSH INTO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY THEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION INITIATE ACROSS SW
VA AND NW NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INFLUENCED BY COMBINED
OROGRAPHICS AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGESSES EWD TOWARD THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR AS TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS...BUT THEY COULD BE ENHANCED BY SOMEWHAT
BETTER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL VA. SPC HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE SWD INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AND WILL BE
MONITORING THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRESENT THINKING ON TIMING IS SIMILAR TO YDA WITH STORMS
PUSHING INTO THE AREA AROUND 22-23Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND
65-70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS N
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THU WHICH WILL DEFLECT SHORTWAVES
NORTH OF THE REGION...HOWEVER A FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED OFF THE VA
COAST IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO ERN NC AND STALL ACROSS THE INNER
BANKS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK TO NON EXISTENT SO EXPECTING MAINLY
PULSE TYPE STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED. IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING TO AROUND 1415-1420M AND EXPECT
HIGHS REACH THE L90S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG THE COAST A BIT TRICKIER
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NRN OBX WHERE TIMING OF THE WEAK FRONT AND
ELY WIND SHIFT AND IS REFLECTED BY A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS IN MOS
GUIDANCE HERE. PRESENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE
L/M80S LATE MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES IN WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST S OF
OREGON INLET EXPECTED IN THE M/U70S TO M80S CRYSTAL COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM WILL
BE GRADUALLY BEATEN DOWN AND SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIDES SE IN THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN STORY
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F INLAND (AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S) LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AREA WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
BOUTS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING THRU THE NW FLOW. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MCS
EVOLUTIONS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

FRONTAL BNDRY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THRU THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY. TIMING IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE
MODEL DIVERSITY SO WILL CONTINUE A GENERIC SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER RESOLUTION OF
FROPA AND PCPN TIMING CAN BE RESOLVED. TEMPS SHUD NOT BE AS WARM
SUNDAY (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER/PCPN AND INCOMING
FRONT) POSSIBLY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NE TO MID 80S SW.

A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO THE WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN MAY BE IN
STORE MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH PUSHES
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BNDRY FARTHER TO THE SW. HOWEVER PCPN
CHANCES AND A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPS WILL BE THE TREND FOR TUE/WED
AS THE FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH AND A MOIST SW FLOW DEVELOPS BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
PGV AND PERHAPS ISO...WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS LIKELY IN CONVECTION...BEST
CHANCES BTWN 20-02Z. GENERALLY VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG IN AREAS WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR. AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT THU DEFLECTING SHORTWAVES NWD...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUTSIDE ANY EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR ISOLATED MAINLY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE CONVECTION...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THRU SAT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS A FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THRU
THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN MONDAY
FOR A RETURN TO IMPROVED FLYING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...HIGH PRES CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
BRINGING W/SWLY FLOW AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES DROPS INTO THE REGION AND
STALLS THU WITH LIGHT E/NELY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN WATERS
AND ALBEMARLE SOUND AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SWLY FLOW
AOB 15 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE S OF CAPE HATTERAS. SEAS GENERALLY
2-3 FT THU.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/..
AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW FLOW AND SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THRU SAT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THRU THE
MARINE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE POST FRONTAL NE
SURGE DEVELOPING. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 6 FT LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS IN THE LONG
FETCH. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THRU MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTC/SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...BTC/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
328 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-091>094-103-104-030800-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-OUTER BANKS DARE-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
328 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ090-095-098-030800-
DUPLIN-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
328 AM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
629 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NCZ080-081-022315-
BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-
629 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS BEAUFORT AND MAINLAND HYDE
COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PANTEGO TO PANTEGO TO
BELHAVEN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF PLYMOUTH
TO 16 MILES SOUTH OF PLYMOUTH TO 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF SWANQUARTER...
MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 7667 3553 7656 3554 7657 3551 7663
      3545 7660 3543 7658 3551 7659 3551 7654
      3539 7643 3537 7648 3544 7656 3535 7666
      3534 7661 3533 7668 3539 7664 3541 7667
      3536 7669 3569 7681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 343DEG 27KT 3563 7675 3560 7670
          3551 7660

10