Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
221 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME HEAT WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH SEVERE WATCH 442 GOING UNTIL 8 PM.
EXTREME/RARELY SEEN INSTAB PRESENT WITH SFC BASED CAPE GOING OVER
7000 INLAND. LAPS/18Z MHX SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW WEAK CAP IN PLACE
BUT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO BREAK IT LATER TODAY. FIGURE SEA BRZ AND
OUT FLOW FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BE FOCUS FOR
STORM INITIATION LATER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTAB VERY STRONG
DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL WL BE POSSIBLE ONCE STORMS GO. CONT CHC
TO HIGH CHC POPS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING THEN SHLD TAPER TO SLIGHT
CHC LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TEMPS TRICKY AS WOULD BE AROUND 80 IF GOT
NO RAIN HOWEVER SINCE EXPECTING DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA CONT
MAINLY MID/UPR 70S...IF GET ORGANIZED COLDPOOL/OUTFLOW THESE MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...TEMPS/DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LOWER
MON ESPCLY IF GET ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH GOOD INSTAB DEVELOPING. MDLS SHOW
DECENT SRT WAVE APPROACHING IN THE AFTN AND THINK WILL AGAIN SEE
SCT STORMS...ESPCLY INLAND AND LATE. WILL CONT WITH CHC POPS FOR
ALL BUT IMD CST. ALTHOUGH WILL NOT BE AS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE MON
STILL LOOKS LIKE THREAT FOR SEVERE ESPCLY WITH SRT WAVE POSS
ENHANCING LIFT LATE. WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S AND CONT RATHER
HIGH DEWPTS WILL PROB BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVRY CRITERIA AGAIN
ESPCLY AREAS JUST INLAND. SINCE CURRENTLY HAVE HEAT WARNING UP AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON PLAN OF LETTING HEADLINES EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD HEAT ADVRY IF NEEDED FOR
MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1253 PM SUN...GFS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN THE EAST COAST DURING THE MID PART OF THE WEEK. PREFER
THE ECMWF HANDING OF UPPER PATTERN AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE
QUITE STRONG...AND GFS HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS TO BE
TOO STRONG. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...BOTH MODELS HANDLE SURFACE FEATURES SIMILARLY. UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL SHUNT THE STRONG SOUTHERN RIDGE TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH
EVIDENT BY LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND HIGH HEIGHTS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON TIMING...WEAK PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS AFTN WITH SOME OCNL
MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE. STILL EXPECT SCT INTENSE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS.  WL AGAIN HAVE THREAT OF
STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL LIKELY SATURATED AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE MON MORN
OTHERWISE VFR THRU EARLY AFTN AFTER ANY FOG/STRATUS LIFTS. AGAIN
WILL SEE SOME SCT TSRA MAINLY LATE AFTN WITH BRIEF LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBYS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 101 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER. MAY HAVE SOME MVFR IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...S/SW WINDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS INTO THIS
EVENING THEN SHLD DIMINISH LATER. DECENT POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED
OUTFLOW IMPACTING WINDS LATER...HOWEVER VERYN HARD TO TO FCST
THAT. IF DO GET OUTFLOW AFTER ANY INIT SURGE ASSOC WITH OUTFLOW
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS REST OF THE NIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4
FEET...POSS SOME 5 FOOTERS OUTER CNTRL WTRS THIS EVENING. WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS MON ESPCLY NRN TIER WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 2 TO 3 FT...MAY SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS OUTER CNTRL WTRS EARLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 106 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL GIVE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND TROUGH TO
THE WEST SUPPORT SPEEDS OF MAINLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TABLE BELOW NOTES DAILY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY JULY 1ST THROUGH MONDAY JULY
2ND...FOR SELECT CLIMATE AND COOP STATIONS. ALL TIME RECORDS ARE
ALSO NOTED.

NEW BERN (KEWN) - RECORDS BEGAN 1948
7/1  -  97 (1990)
7/2  -  96 (1953) ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 106 (1952)

CAPE HATTERAS (KHSE) - RECORDS BEGAN 1893
7/1  -  93 (1957)
7/2  -  90 (1932)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD -  96 (1992)

GREENVILLE (KPGV) - RECORDS BEGAN 1897
7/1  - 103 (1959)
7/2  -  99 (1936)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 104 (1977)

KINSTON 7 SE (COOP) - RECORDS BEGAN 1899
7/1  - 103 (1959)
7/2  - 100 (1968)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 106 (1926)

MANTEO (KMQI) - RECORDS BEGAN 1966
7/1  -  97 (1977)
7/2  -  93 (1968)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 101 (2011)

BEAUFORT (KMRH) - RECORDS BEGAN 2000
7/1  -  89 (2011)
7/2 -   88 (2011)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ104.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF
CLIMATE...DAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-021745-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM THE DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-103-021745-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY STORM THE DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ104-021745-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM THE DEVELOPS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             1 SE THURMAN            35.03N  76.99W
07/01/2012  M1.00 INCH       CRAVEN             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            RELAYED BY 911 CALL CENTER FROM CRAVEN COUNTY SHERIFFS
            DEPUTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200193

ASM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             2 S JAMES CITY          35.04N  77.02W
07/01/2012  E0.50 INCH       CRAVEN             NC   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200194

ASM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             2 SE JAMES CITY         35.05N  76.99W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       CRAVEN             NC   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200195

ASM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NW PAMLICO SHORES     35.14N  76.01W
07/01/2012  M47 MPH          AMZ135             NC   WEATHER FLOW

            MEASURED BY WEATHERFLOW STATION AT OCRACOKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200196

ASM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
414 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND GST     FARMVILLE               35.59N  77.59W
07/01/2012  E65 MPH          PITT               NC   SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60-65 MPH WINDS

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200197

ASM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             CEDAR ISLAND            35.00N  76.33W
07/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       CARTERET           NC   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY CEDAR ISLAND FERRY TERMINAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1200198

ASM