Heat Advisory 8, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. N/NE SFC FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS EASTERN NC. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS IN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N/NE BACK THROUGH
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT. FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH BL
MOISTURE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 20-22C SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109 DEGREES FOR MOST OF EASTERN NC THU
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT OBX HYDE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON...GIVEN
FORECASTED INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE. ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY AND
THIS COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH MAX
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY DAY.
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE OVER INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS DEPICTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SATURDAY THEN JUST
SOUTH OF REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY. THE ECMWF PUSHES
THRU FRONT SLOWLY THRU OVER THE WEEKEND AND TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE WAVY FRONT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE
RATHER UNSETTLED. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR WEDS...AND WILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM WED...EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALLOWING BL TO MOISTEN
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT FOG OR LOW STRATUS FORMATION TONIGHT BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF/SHALLOW FOG SHOULD WINDS DECOUPLE. S/SW
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THU WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WEEKEND...COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR THE
WEEKEND. CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ISOLATED MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
PREDOMINATE N/NE WINDS 5-15 KT...AND SEAS 2-5 FT...HIGHEST NORTH
OF HATTERAS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK N/NE THROUGH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY. INLAND TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THU...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BTWN TROUGH AND
HIGH OFFSHORE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THU TO 10-20KT AND SEAS
2-4FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT GRADIENT TO BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED
OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAK TROUGH INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME N/NE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO WORK INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS AGAIN
SHOULD BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC

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