Freeze Watch 2, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1245 AM EST THU NOV 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC TO OFF
OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A CHILLY
AND SOMEWHAT MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
TUESDAY AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY COLD AIRMASS LOCATED OVER NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB TEMPS -1C AND 500 TEMPS -26C!
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
EVENING AND WILL MOVE NORTH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AND SOMEWHAT
MOIST AIR ACROSS EASTERN NC TONIGHT. AREA RADARS ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURNS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WAS FAILING TO
REACH THE GROUND AND CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK APART A SIGN THAT
SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING DESPITE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS EVEN WITH LARGE BREAKS AS CLOUDS
OVER VIRGINIA WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z AS DEEPER DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES INLAND IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR FOR A
SUFFICENT TIME AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AWAY FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS OVER AREAS THAT
ALREADY HAVE HAD A HARD FREEZE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S (ISOLATED LOWER 30S) INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
DRYING AIRMASS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GONE BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE WEAK CAA WILL BE OFFSET BY SUNSHINE ALLOWING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE TO REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WED...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL
MOVE NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS NIGHT WITH RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURS NIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. FRI THROUGH MON WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM A MINIMUM OF 1325-1330 METERS
ON FRI TO 1370-1375 METERS BY MON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY
DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS NEAR 0.40 INCHES FRI AND SAT...ROUGHLY
BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER...SO EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH EXCELLENT INSOLATION BOTH DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 60S FRI AND WARM TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON SAT.

RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON THEN PUSH OFF THE
COAST SUN INTO MON. RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SW TO NE OFF THE COAST
WHICH WILL PRODUCE E/SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUN/MON. TEMPS WILL
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUN/MON IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SW
PORTIONS TO UPPER 60S FOR NE ZONES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES MON AND PROGRESS EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE REGION TUES INTO WED. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC TUES INTO EARLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE. ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN ECMWF/GFS
SCENARIO TUES/WED. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH MAY WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER
BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY KEPT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BAND
OF THICKER CLOUDINESS...ASSCTD WITH LAST VORT AXIS ROTATING AROUND
UPR LOW...WILL SPREAD IN FROM NW MAINLY 08Z-15Z TIME FRAME WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 5K FT. SKC AND BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING AFTN...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 22Z.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 320 PM WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION MOST SUNNY DURING THE
DAY AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF DITCH FOG
EACH NIGHT AS SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND DECOUPLES WINDS TO CALM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. WILL
CONTINUE THE MALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL WATERS FOR NORTHWEST WINDS
MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. SEAS NORTH OF HATTERAS ARE HIGHER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED REACHING 14 FT AT BUOY 13 MILES EAST OF
OREGON INLET. THESE SEAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERLY BACK
SWELL FROM THE STRONG LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE UPPED SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TO REFLECT THIS SWELL. THURSDAY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20 KT WHILE SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 320 PM WED...SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FRI AS SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH SPEEDS DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY FRI. A SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND CREATING GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEN SHIFT EASTERLY SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE OF THE
WATERS. WINDS VEER ESE/SE BY MON BUT REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MON. WAVEWATCH III
APPEARED IN GOOD SHAPE.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
INTO THURSDAY AS EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE INDICATES WATER LEVELS AT
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO WATER LEVEL RISES AT SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 945 AM WEDNESDAY...CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LATEST EXTRA TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC/JME
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...CTC/JME/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CTC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
620 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-081130-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
620 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-104-081130-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
620 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHEAST SWELL ENERGY MAY PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND OCEAN OVERWASH ON THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS...WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY PRODUCE MINOR
SOUNDSIDE FLOODING ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. NORTHEAST SWELL ENERGY MAY PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND OCEAN OVERWASH ON THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS...WHILE
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY PRODUCE MINOR SOUNDSIDE
FLOODING ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-081130-
CARTERET-
620 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
PRODUCE MINOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING FOR AREAS AROUND CEDAR ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MAY PRODUCE MINOR
SOUNDSIDE FLOODING FOR AREAS AROUND CEDAR ISLAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.