Excessive Heat Warning 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
221 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING RECORD
BREAKING HEAT TO THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY MID WEEK
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY LOWERING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...VERY WARM CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS
75 TO 80. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN PATCHY FOG. OTRW
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CONT HEAT ADVISORY ENTIRE AREA UNTIL
8 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...H5 RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD ACRS ERN NC THROUGH
SAT WITH H8 TEMPS FCST TO REACH 25 TO 26 DEGREES C. DPTS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPR 70S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 110
TO 115 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX HYDE WHERE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT OBX HYDE WHERE THERE WILL BE A
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. NO CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH STRONG MID
LVL CAP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...EXTREME HEAT WILL CONT SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPS
CONT WELL ABOVE 20C. EXPECT TEMPS IN LOW 100'S INLAND TO LOWER 90S
CST....DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AOA 110
MOST SPOTS. SRN BEACHES WILL HAVE BENEFIT OF SEA BRZ AND WILL GO
WITH HEAT ADVSRY FOR OBX HYDE. MID/UPR RDG BEGINS TO SLIDE SW SLOWLY
SUNDAY SO CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND
RDG...STILL WILL HAVE DECENT MID LVL CAP SO WILL CONT 20 POPS
INLAND. MID/UPR RDG SLOWLY SLIDES SW THRU NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
TROFFING EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT POPS MAINLY INLAND DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING THRU MID
WEEK THEN INCREASE TO CHC INLAND LATER IN WEEK AS TRF DEVELOPS.
ALTHOUGH HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND CVRG OF TSRA WHEN THEY DO
FIRE COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN EXPECTED EXTREME INSTAB
WITH DOWNBURSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH THICKNESSES/850 TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY BE DECREASING EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 90S INLAND THRU THE
PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS NEAR HEAT ADVRY CRITERIA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG THROUGH SAT. LIGHT SW WINDS EXPECTED SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU PERIOD.
MOIST LOW LVLS COULD LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN
FOG/STRATUS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME WIDELY SCT TSRA AT TIMES
THAT WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT TERMINALS WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS AND
POSS GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONT SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT...AND
PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH THIS EVE FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SEAS REACH 6 FT FOR OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. PRES GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE TONIGHT AND SAT WITH SW WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-5
FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROF
TO THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CONT MAINLY SW
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10 TO 20 KTS. THERE WILL BE TIMES WHERE
THE GRDNT GETS PINCHED AND WINDS/SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA LVLS OUTER
WTRS BUT FOR NOW WILL CAP WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS AT 5 FT.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE TRF MAY SLIDE E FAR ENOUGH TO REACH CST WITH
BRIEF LOWERING OF WINDS AND VARIABLE DIR BUT THINK BULK OF THE
WTRS WILL MAINTAIN SW FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TABLE BELOW NOTES
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY JUNE 29TH THROUGH MONDAY
JULY 2ND...FOR SELECT CLIMATE AND COOP STATIONS. ALL TIME JUNE
AND JULY RECORDS ARE ALSO NOTED.

NEW BERN (KEWN) - RECORDS BEGAN 1948
6/29 - 102 (1959)
6/30 - 103 (1959)  ALL TIME JUNE RECORD - 105 (1952)
7/1  -  97 (1990)
7/2  -  96 (1953)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 106 (1952)

CAPE HATTERAS (KHSE) - RECORDS BEGAN 1893
6/29 -  92 (1959)
6/30 -  94 (1959)  ALL TIME JUNE RECORD -  97 (1952)
7/1  -  93 (1957)
7/2  -  90 (1932)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD -  96 (1992)

GREENVILLE (KPGV) - RECORDS BEGAN 1897
6/29 - 100 (1923)
6/30 - 101 (1959)  ALL TIME JUNE RECORD - 103 (2008)
7/1  - 103 (1959)
7/2  -  99 (1936)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 104 (1977)

KINSTON 7 SE (COOP) - RECORDS BEGAN 1899
6/29 - 101 (1959)
6/30 - 103 (1959)  ALL TIME JUNE RECORD - 105 (1954 AND 1924)
7/1  - 103 (1959)
7/2  - 100 (1968)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 106 (1926)

MANTEO (KMQI) - RECORDS BEGAN 1966
6/29 -  96 (2008)
6/30 -  96 (1968)  ALL TIME JUNE RECORD - 101 (2010)
7/1  -  97 (1977)
7/2  -  93 (1968)  ALL TIME JULY RECORD - 101 (2011)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ104.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JAC/RF
MARINE...JAC/RF
CLIMATE...DAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-300730-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
319 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-103-300730-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-
319 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ104-300730-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
319 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.